In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris -0.4%. Frankfurt -0.8%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.44%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude -1.8% to $64.56. Gold -0.8% to $1264.90. Bitcoin -0.3% to $6736.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bps to 2.91%
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
S&P 500
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2755.75. Average Range for CD1 is 22.75 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 71% Odds of decline > 20 = 41%
Market Bias: Bullish
CD1 Range High = 2794.00 CD1 Range Low = 2762.50 CD1 Range Avg = 22.75
Scenario 1: IF price holds above 2770.75, THEN upside targets 2781.50 – 2784.25 zone.
Scenario 2: IF price violates 2770.75, THEN downside targets 2765 50 – 2763.00 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 2781.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2765.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2739.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2757.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2888.75; 10 Day Average True Range 19.50; VIX: 13.32
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 7290.50. Average Range for CD1 is 50.00 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 72% Odds of decline > 25 = 63%
Market Bias: Bullish
CD1 Range High = 7338.75 CD1 Range Low = 7250.50 CD1 Range Avg = 50.00
Scenario 1: IF price holds above 7313.75, THEN upside targets 7338.75 – 7351.00 zone.
Scenario 2: IF price violates 7313.75, THEN downside targets 7294.50 – 7287.00 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 7368.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7279.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 7138.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7260.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7351.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 79.00; VIX: 13.32
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN