Markets
Later this afternoon, the Federal Reserve will release the results of its 2022 bank stress tests, which were established under Dodd-Frank regulations following the global financial crisis. All 34 U.S. banks with over $100B in assets will be checked against a series of doomsday scenarios to ensure their balance sheets can withstand a hypothetical downturn. The results – which will particularly focus on stress in commercial real estate and corporate debt markets – come amid growing fears of a looming recession, meaning an economic spiral may not be all that hypothetical.
Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Current Account
9:45 PMI Composite Flash
10:00 Powell testifies before House Financial Services Committee
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Markets produced a Positive 3 Day Cycle as price pulled back finding “buy response” at the 3 Day Central Pivot Zone. (3700-3710). Prior range was 112 handles on 1.610M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today begins a new cycle, with the Average Decline measuring 3702, which was securely tested during prior session. Overnight buy response support within the 3 Day Central Pivot Zone (3736 – 3742). Pre-RTH, price is currently trading near overnight high and challenging prior session high. Bulls have “ball-control” now, so it is theirs to lose. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3780, initially targets 3805 – 3810 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3780, initially targets 3765 – 3760 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3798 PVA Low Edge = 3756 Prior POC = 3786
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3855; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3673; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3736; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3835; 10 Day Average True Range; 120; VIX: 29
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 11285 for this cycle day. Price is currently trading at the upper edge of prior session, having successfully tested 3 Day Central Pivot Zone support (11472 – 11503). Buyers have ball-control and there is plenty of room for the market to rally, so we’ll maintain a bullish bias until there is a new structural volatility shift. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 11620, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11745 – 11816 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 11620, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11568– 11537 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11719 PVA Low Edge = 11530 Prior POC = 11668
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 11894; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11269; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11489; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11855; 10 Day Average True Range: 433; VIX: 29
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN