Trade Strategy 7.10.23

Markets (Top Stories)

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

10:00 Fed’s Barr: “Bank Capital”
10:00 Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
11:00 Fed’s Daly Speech
12:30 PM Investor Movement Index
3:00 PM Consumer Credit 

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal CD2 unfolded as early consolidation lead to a rally above 4450, fulfilling upside objectives. Only to sharply sell off during the afternoon session closing out the holiday shortened week. Prior range (Friday) was 44 handles on 1.614M contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is trading below above CD1 Low (4419.50) during overnight trade activity. As long as this level holds during RTH, then a positive three-day cycle statistic is secured. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4430, initially targets 4445 – 4450 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4430, initially targets 4415 – 4410 zone.

PVA High Edge = 4452       PVA Low Edge = 4432         Prior POC = 4449

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2023 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4452; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4399; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4459; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4460; 10 Day Average True Range  40; VIX: 15

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal CD2 unfolded as early consolidation lead to a rally above 15250, fulfilling upside objectives; Only to sharply sell off during the afternoon session closing out the holiday shortened week. Prior range (Friday) was 187 handles on 545k contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is trading below above CD1 Low (15111.50) during overnight trade activity. As long as this level holds during RTH, then a positive three-day cycle statistic is secured. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 15200, initially targets 15240 – 15245 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 15200, initially targets 15190 – 15180 zone.

PVA High Edge = 15273       PVA Low Edge = 15183    Prior POC = 15226

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2023 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 15296; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14980; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15274; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15372; 10 Day Average True Range: 218; VIX: 15

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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