Markets
The S&P 500 has climbed back over a record it set more than a year ago, capping a stop-start recovery that has been one of the most uneven and uncertain in recent memory. The rally, which on Monday took the benchmark past its previous all-time high of 2,134.72 set in May 2015, was derailed at various points by plunging oil prices, currency devaluations in China and most recently the U.K. vote to leave the EU. Can it keep going?
In Asia, Japan +2.5% to 16096. Hong Kong +1.7% to 21225. China +1.8% to 3049. India +0.7% to 27808.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +1.7%. Frankfurt +1.7%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.5%. S&P +0.5%. Nasdaq +0.6%. Crude +2.1% to $45.70. Gold -0.3% to $1352.90.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +5 bps to 1.48%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Economic Calendar
6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:45 Fed’s Bullard speech
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
10:00 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 Wholesale Trade
1:00 PM Results of $20B, 10-Year Note Auction
10:30 PM Fed’s Mester speech
PTG Trading
Market’s continued upside momentum reaching and exceeding Penetration Levels in prior session. Buyers continue to flow in each tic of a new high, so until the last buyer has bought expectation is for grind higher. Key support is now marked at 2128 handle for initial sign of weakness (SOW).
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Potential exists for a decline (pullback), but until there is a new SOW, shorting momentum is a tough game.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2153.00; LOD Range Projection: 2117.00; CD1 Max Penetration Level: 2147.00; CD1 Max Violation Level: 2104.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2081.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2110.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2105.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 24.58.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2136.75), THEN primary objective is 2139.25 STATX Level. CD1 Penetration Level is 2147.00
Scenario 2: Price is currently trading above PH (2136.75)…Violation and conversion of this level would suggest that buyers are fulfilled and potential increases for a decline beginning. Further conversion of 2128 handle would confirm a short-term tradable high.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN