Markets
Crude futures climbed 2% overnight to over $57/bbl after oil spiked late Friday on news that Iran had seized a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.
In Asia, Japan -0.2%. Hong Kong -1.5%. China -1.3%. India -0.8%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris flat. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude +2% to $57.02. Gold -0.1% to $1426. Bitcoin -1.7% to $10438.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 2.04%
Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/
8:30Chicago Fed National Activity Index
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S&P 500
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2976.00 (FULFILLED). Average Range for CD1 is 34.50 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 73% Odds of decline > 20 = 43%
NOTE: When CD1 Average Decline Target has been fulfilled on CD3, odds favor beginning of rally for new Cycle.
CD1 Range High = 2996.50 CD1 Range Low = 2964.00 CD1 Range Avg = 34.50
Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 2976, THEN initial upside targets 2986 – 2988 zone.
Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 2976, THEN initial downside targets 2966 – 2964 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September 2019 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 2994.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2966.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2990.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3012.00; 10 Day Average True Range 21.60; VIX: 14.50
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 7864 (FULFILLED). Average Range for CD1 is 125.00 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 74% Odds of decline > 25 = 66%
CD1 Range High =7882.00 CD1 Range Low = 7828.00 CD1 Range Avg = 125.00
Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 7840, THEN initial upside targets 7872 – 7882 zone.
Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 7840, THEN initial downside targets 7828 – 7815 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September 2019 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 7905.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7805.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7895.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7895.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 78.79; VIX: 14.50
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN