US inflation data due on Friday – upside risks
BMO on the data from the US on Thursday inflation data for Q2. In brief:
- Second quarter real GDP surprised on the upside at 2.8%
- while inflation slowed during Q2 to 2.9%, it was modestly above expectations for a 2.7% print. As a result, investors revisited expectations for June’s core-PCE figures that will be released Friday morning, and although the consensus remains +0.2%, the assumption is that depending on the trajectory of revisions in April/May, there could be upside risks with which to contend as the market absorbs the latest installment of the Fed’s favored inflation measure.
- In short, growth remains surprisingly strong and realized inflation might be edging back toward the Fed’s objectives – but it doesn’t seem to be in any hurry.
Source: Financial Juice
Economic Calendar
Source: Investing.com
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Failed Three-Day Cycle as we knew it was a steep hill to climb and indeed it was. On a positive note, the upside target zone between 5516 – 5538 hit perfectly as noted in prior DTS Briefing 7/25/24. It was a wild, as we call it “Range-Runner” Day Type as price traversed (I like that word!) the entire range both up and down. Range was 100 handles on 2.755M contracts exchanged.
Posted in the PTG Live Trading Room:
“PTGDavid : (2:20:43 PM) : How about a Range Runner…Nail the lows…just for fun.”
“PTGDavid : (4:07:45 PM) : And they nailed the low…AMAZING!”
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1: Today begins a new cycle with the CD1 Average Decline having been well exceeded. IF the bulls can re-gain dominant control, the rally could begin at any time. Being FRYDAY we’ll continue to anticipate elevated volatility and wide swings until price can form a solidified balance zone. YOU KNOW THE DRILL!
Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5455, initially targets 5480 – 5485 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5455, initially targets 5420 – 5415 zone.
PVA High Edge = 5505 PVA Low Edge = 5455 Prior POC = 5465
PTG 3 Day Cycle
EXCLUSIVE OFFER
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91.67% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
Link to: Range Projections (ES) Sept (U) 2024
ES Chart
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Failed Three-Day Cycle as we knew it was a steep hill to climb and indeed it was. On a positive note, the upside target zone between 19359 – 19458 hit perfectly as noted in prior DTS Briefing 7/25/24. It was a wild, as we call it “Range-Runner” Day Type as price traversed (I like that word!) the entire range both up and down. Range was 507 handles on 955k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1: Today begins a new cycle with the CD1 Average Decline having been well exceeded. IF the bulls can re-gain dominant control, the rally could begin at any time. Being FRYDAY we’ll continue to anticipate elevated volatility and wide swings until price can form a solidified balance zone. YOU KNOW THE DRILL!
Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 18995, initially targets 19200 – 19225 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 18995, initially targets 18820 – 18785 zone.
PVA High Edge = 19300 PVA Low Edge = 19088 Prior POC = 20202
Link to: Range Projections (NQ) Sept (U) 2024
NQ Chart
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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