Markets
S&P 500 futures advanced 0.2% overnight as traders awaited the Fed’s latest policy decision.
Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/
Source: https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-cfds
Economic Calendar
8:30 International trade in goods
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:00 PM Chairman Press Conference
Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
The central bank is expected to keep interest rates at near zero to support the economy still struggling with the coronavirus pandemic, while Jerome Powell will deliver a press conference at 2:30 p.m.
Oil prices settled mixed Tuesday, with U.S. crude losing more than 1% on worries about a likely build in domestic crude stockpiles last week amid an explosion in new coronavirus cases in the United States and other world hotspots.
Source: https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-mixed-tuesday-ahead-of-stockpile-data-2244167
S&P 500 (ES)
***Written 7 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to Mr. TopStep’s Opening Print publication.
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): 3 Day Positive Cycle Statistics were fulfilled as price attempted and failed twice to clear CD2 High. This “double-failure” set up the 2 pm “shake n bake” reversal, which took the price lower into the closing bell. Market on Close Sell Imbalance of $1.6B capped the session, with a range of 38.75 handles and 1.358M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Late day sell-down in prior session settled price at our 2-day Line in Sand (3213) Level. Normal for a CD1 is for some magnitude decline with average measuring 3181. We then have two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3213, initially targeting 3223 – 3233 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3213, initially targeting 3203 – 3193 zone.
P -VA High = 3235 P – VA Low = 3221 P – POC = 3228
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September 2020 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3249; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3184; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3218; 10 Day Average True Range 35; VIX: 25
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)… Price has fulfilled CD1 average decline at 10515 level, where buyers stepped-in and rallied price back to previous POC (10600). As such we have two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
P – VA High = 10648 P – VA Low = 10570 P – POC = 10600
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 10575, THEN initial upside estimate targets 10600 – 10635 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 10575, THEN initial downside estimate targets 10540 – 10515 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September 2020 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 10780; LOD ATR Range Projection: 10348; 3 Day Central Pivot: 10550; 10 Day Average True Range: 226; VIX: 25
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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