Trade Strategy 7.30.25

Posted on by July 30, 2025

S&P 500 (ES)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: Early push above prior RTH high failed to sustain a bid, resulting in “Peek-a-Boo” PKB (a.k.a. Look Above/Below and Fail Reversal).

Break below the Open Range and the 6425 Line in the Sand (LIS) opened the door to a bearish Cycle Day 2. Long liquidation gained downside momentum progressively throughout the day, closing below the 6408.75 Cycle Day 1 Low. 

Range was 46 handles on 1075M contracts exchanged.

…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3


Transition into Cycle Day 3: For Cycle Day 3 (CD3) price is below the CD1 Low (6408.75) which has a 91.11% historical Positive 3-Day Cycle performance record.

Main Event for today is the FOMC Statement and the “Powell-Presser” previewed below.

Here’s what’s expected for the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement and press conference on Wednesday, July 30, 2025.

📌 FOMC Statement & Vice‑Chair Jerome Powell Presser

  • The FOMC’s policy decision is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on July 30, 2025, at the close of its July 29–30 meeting Federal ReserveForex.

  • A press conference with Chair Jerome Powell follows at 2:30 p.m. ET, during which he will discuss the Fed’s outlook and take questions Federal ReserveForexKiplinger.

What markets anticipate:

  • No change to the federal funds rate, which is expected to remain at 4.25%–4.50% KiplingerInvestopediaKiplinger.

  • Federal officials—including Powell—are expected to emphasize a data-dependent approach, noting that while inflation remains elevated, the labor market is still solid KiplingerKiplinger.

  • There is minimal probability (~3–4%) of a rate cut in this meeting; markets look toward possible rate cuts in September or December depending on data flow KiplingerCBS NewsKiplinger.

  • FOMC dynamics show potential internal divergence, with at least two governors signaling preference for a cut (Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman), though likely outvoted CBS NewsInvestopedia.

✅ Key Takeaways:

  • A hold on rates is widely expected, with Powell likely underscoring a “patient, data‑driven” stance.

  • The reverse repo program continues strong utilization, reflecting liquidity preferences in the current financial environment.

  • The market is watching for guidance on the timing of future rate cuts, possibly in September or December, rather than July.

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6405+-, initially targets 6425 – 6430 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6405+-, initially targets 6385 – 6380 zone.

PVA High Edge = 6421    PVA Low Edge = 6398         Prior POC = 6410

   ESU

Nasdaq (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: CD2 sell-down is the theme for this cycle day, as price failed is sustained bid, as a break of the Open Range low sparked a persistent liquidation momentum, closing near lows of the day. Range was 231 handles on 530k contracts exchanged. 

 

…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

Transition into Cycle Day 3: For Cycle Day 3 (CD3) price is above the CD1 Low (23436.75) which has a 91.11% historical Positive 3-Day Cycle performance record.

Tech Earnings along with the FOMC are in-focus for this day.

Mr. Softie (MSFT)…Meta platforms (META and Qualcomm (QCOM) to cite the “biggies!”

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/earnings

 

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 23475+-, initially targets 23515 – 23535 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 23475+-, initially targets 23360 –  23335 zone.

PVA High Edge = 23555     PVA Low Edge = 23435         Prior POC = 23475

NQU 

Economic Calendar

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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