Fed Expected to Hold Rates and Signal September Cut
The US central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee will keep its benchmark rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, a peak reached a year ago, at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting Wednesday, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The decision will be announced via a post-meeting statement at 2 p.m. in Washington. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference 30 minutes later.
Policymakers are likely to acknowledge that inflation has made progress toward their 2% goal — a prerequisite for rate cuts — following tame readings on consumer prices for the month of June. With unemployment also edging higher, officials will probably indicate it’s appropriate for policy to become less tight soon.
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Source: Investing.com
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Positive Three-Day Cycle as price fulfilled upside target zone (5525 – 5530) as outlined in prior DTS Briefing 7.30.24. Long Liquidation accelerated once the Line-in-Sand (5500) broke with nowhere to hide for the bulls. Final flush and reversal unfolded from 5445 CD1 Extreme Violation Level. Sharp rally back to 3 Day Central Pivot Zone (5485 – 5490) was final nail in the coffin for shorts.
Crazy as the RTH Session was, Mr. Softie earnings post close drove price back down to 5433 and at time of this writing (8 pm et) price has rallied back to 5480. Welcome to the World of Futures Trading. Range was 94 handles on 1.983M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1: Today begins a new cycle with the CD1 Average Decline having been well exceeded. Main Event for today is of course FED Policy Statement and Presser. (see above for notes). Multi-Day Composite Range between 5430 – 5530 marks the current “sandbox” (playground) with elevated volatility expected to continue. There are multiple levels (too numerous to list them all) that may elicit a tradeable “response”, so we will defer to Mr. Market to show us the way forward. YOU KNOW THE DRILL!
Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5470, initially targets 5490 – 5500 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5470, initially targets 5450 – 5445 zone.
PVA High Edge = 5490 PVA Low Edge = 5441 Prior POC = 5470
PTG 3 Day Cycle
EXCLUSIVE OFFER
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 90% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
ES Chart
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Positive Three-Day Cycle as price fulfilled upside target zone (19295 – 19360) as outlined in prior DTS Briefing 7.30.24. Long Liquidation accelerated once the Line-in-Sand (19210) broke with nowhere to hide for the bulls. Final flush and reversal unfolded from 18740 Extreme Violation Level.
Crazy as the RTH Session was, Mr. Softie earnings post close drove price back down to 18740 and at time of this writing (8 pm et) price has rallied back to 19075. Welcome to the World of Futures Trading. Range was 594 handles on 731k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1: Today begins a new cycle with the CD1 Average Decline having been well exceeded. Main Event for today is of course FED Policy Statement and Presser. (see above for notes). Multi-Day Composite Range between 18750 – 19395 marks the current “sandbox” (playground) with elevated volatility expected to continue. There are multiple levels (too numerous to list them all) that may elicit a tradeable “response”, so we will defer to Mr. Market to show us the way forward. YOU KNOW THE DRILL!
Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 18940, initially targets 19130 – 19175 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 18940, initially targets 18805 – 18750 zone.
PVA High Edge = 19134 PVA Low Edge = 18736 Prior POC = 18938
NQ Chart
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN