Markets (Top Stories)
Source: seekingalpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 International Trade in Goods and Services
8:45 Fed’s Logan: “Policy Challenges for Central Banks”
9:45 PMI Composite Final
10:00 ISM Service Index
10:00 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Balancing Day unfolded for the start of the second-half as traders are taking advantage of the shortened trading week. There is a definite “pause” in the recent upward trajectory of price momentum, though selling has not been too aggressive. More of a garden variety pullback/consolidation, building energy for the next move. Prior range was 26 handles on 1.154M contracts exchanged.
NOTE: @spotgamma states: “1 month realized volatility in the S&P is at ~10.5% which is the lowest level since Dec ’22.”
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 4458 handle, which has been fulfilled during overnight trade. We’ll use 4460 as today’s Line-in-Sand reference level. Bulls do not want to give up too much territory during this corrective phase. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4460, initially targets 4475 – 4480 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4460, initially targets 4450 – 4445 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4490 PVA Low Edge = 4482 Prior POC 4485
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2023 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4498; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4446; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4486; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4523; 10 Day Average True Range 37; VIX: 14
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Balancing Day unfolded for the start of the second-half as traders are taking advantage of the shortened trading week. There is a definite “pause” in the recent upward trajectory of price momentum, though selling has not been too aggressive. More of a garden variety pullback/consolidation, building energy for the next move. Prior range was 176 handles on 471k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 15270 handle, which has been fulfilled during overnight trade. We’ll use this level as today’s Line-in-Sand reference level. Bulls do not want to give up too much territory during this corrective phase. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 15270, initially targets 15320 – 15325 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 15270, initially targets 15245 – 15230 zone.
PVA High Edge = 15392 PVA Low Edge = 15332 Prior POC = 15376
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2023 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 15493; LOD ATR Range Projection: 15137; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15349; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15525; 10 Day Average True Range: 228; VIX: 14
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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