Markets
The Fed didn’t raise its benchmark interest rate last month because officials worried about the “surprisingly weak May employment report,” according to the minutes of the June meeting. And that was before the Brexit vote. The outlook continues what has become a familiar pattern at the Fed: The central bank enters the year predicting stronger growth and a gradual return to higher interest rates, but then pares its forecasts as data disappoints.
In Asia, Japan -0.7% to 15276. Hong Kong +1% to 20707. China flat at 3017. India +0.1% to 27201.
In Europe, at midday, London +1.4%. Paris +1.6%. Frankfurt +1.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P flat. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +1.1% to $47.97. Gold flat at $1366.80.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bps to 1.37%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Economic Calendar
Chain Store Sales
7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:15 ADP Jobs Report
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Gallup Good Jobs Rate
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
PTG Trading
Markets shook off renewed post Brexit anxieties and reversed recent weakness with a powerful rally in prior session to reach and exceed 2094 handle. This produced Positive 3 Day Rally we outlined in prior DTS Report 7.6.16. Here is an excerpt from that report: “Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…This Cycle is in jeopardy of a failure of positive cycle unless price can recover back above 2094.00 CD 1 Low.”
Today begins a new Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Residual momentum may carry price a bit higher before the next decline begins. Expectation is for any decline to be relatively shallow ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Report which has potential to be a market mover.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2122.00; LOD Range Projection: 2064.75; CD1 Max Penetration Level: 2104.50; CD1 Max Violation Level: 2049.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2094.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2089.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2117.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 33.30
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above PH (2094.50), THEN primary objective is 2100 – 2103 STATX Zone followed by 2104.50.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2094.50) and subsequent violation and conversion of 2088.50 would be an initial Sign of Weakness (SOW). Lower levels anticipated for renewed buy response are 2086 – 2084 Central Pivot Zone, followed by 2080 handle.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN