Markets (Top Stories)
Run-up in yields
Bond yields continue to rise across the board, continuing an upswing that began nearly three months ago at the beginning of the summer. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury (US10Y) closed at 4.25% on Wednesday – marking the highest level since 2008 – and extended gains overnight by climbing another 4 bps to 4.29%. The upward march follows the release of the latest FOMC minutes, which stressed that additional interest rate hikes might be needed.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Markets did secure a positive 3-day cycle as price just barely traded above 4465, which turned out to be a major resistance barrier. Failure for the bulls to overcome became trapped, as price reversed, selling down for the remainder of the session. Prior range was 50 handles on 1.442M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline measures 4431 which is in-place, so we will be looking for a relief rally to work off the deep oversold conditions. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4420, initially targets 4435 – 4440 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4420, initially targets 4405 – 4400 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4464 PVA Low Edge = 4437 Prior POC = 4458
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2023 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4464; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4377; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4466; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4462; 10 Day Average True Range 54; VIX: 16
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Markets did secure a positive 3-day cycle as price traded above 15020. Bulls became trapped, as price reversed, selling down for the remainder of the session. Prior range was 244 handles on 632k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline measures 14984 which is in-place, so we will be looking for a relief rally to work off the deep oversold conditions. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 14940, initially targets 14985 – 15005 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 14940, initially targets 14890 – 14875 zone.
PVA High Edge = 15132 PVA Low Edge = 15017 Prior POC = 15112
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2023 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 15138; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14733; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15125; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15170; 10 Day Average True Range: 251; VIX: 16
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
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