Markets
Oil prices are edging up after U.S. crude broke below $40 per barrel in the prior session, but traders said fuel markets continue to be dogged by a production glut. “We got here on the back of excessive storage in crude oil and gasoline,” said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities. WTI settled 22% below its June peak Monday, meeting the common definition of a bear market.
In Asia, Japan -1.5% to 16391. Hong Kong closed. China +0.6% to 2971. India -0.1% to 27982.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.4%. Paris -1.4%. Frankfurt -1.4%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.2%. Crude +0.9% to $40.41. Gold +0.5% to $1366.40.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +5 bps to 1.54%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Economic Calendar
Auto Sales
6:15 PM Fed’s Kaplan: Monetary Policy
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 Gallup US ECI
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
PTG Trading
Bulls made an attempt in early overnight trade yesterday to push price above the key 2172 level, but failed to hold bid during cash session. As such sellers drove price lower to test 2161 – 2163 lower key price edge. Overnight trade price has bounced to 2171 and was rejected by sellers…Price once again has pushed lower to test 2157.75 low low projection.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for some type of decline…Failed attempts by buyers to push higher potentially weakens price structure, though it has not broken yet…Expectation is for continued back n forth until there is enough force to shift the recent neutral sentiment.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2183.00; LOD Range Projection: 2157.75; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2153.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2165.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2183.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 13.23
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price will need to hold above 2157 and clear and convert 2162 to support for chance of higher prices…Resistance is building between 2163 – 2171 zone. IF 2172 is converted to hard upper support, THEN upside is open to 2185.
Scenario 2: Price is currently in a down leg from 2172 key resistance…Violation and conversion of 2158 to lower resistance increases likelihood of lower prices. Average Decline on CD1 targets 2151.50…Recall that 2152 has been critical support level…Solid break of this level may force some long liquidation. Deep extremes measure down to 2144 Max Violation Level.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN