Markets
Wall Street is cautious heading into next week, after having seen the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) slide into correction territory. The market narrative has changed in a matter of days, and concerns now abound that the Federal Reserve has slowed down the economy too much and has not eased policy soon enough. The latest nonfarm payrolls report has stoked recession worries, and investors will be paying close attention to upcoming economic data.
Monday will see measures on the U.S. services sector, where attention will be on the employment and prices components. There will also be the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey to give the latest read on credit conditions in the economy. Finally, Thursday’s update on initial jobless claims will garner attention, especially after the July jobs report.
Source: Seeking Alpha
Economic Calendar
Source: Investing.com
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Failed Three-Day Cycle as price only achieved 30% of the cycle target and could not hold bid above CD1 Low (5451.25). Rare 10% occurrence, but demonstrates the shift in market sentiment to “risk-off.” We view this cycle failure as a “warning shot” for dynamic changes unfolding in “real-time” and as active participants of the market, we should heed the messages it is sending. Range was 85 handles on 2.349M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1: Once again price has far exceeded the projected CD1 average decline, so we’ll defer to Mr. Market to establish a new cycle low from today’s session. We’ll be looking for signs of price stabilization with volatility elevated with VIX back with a 20 + handle.
Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5340, initially targets 5370 – 5375 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5340, initially targets 5320 – 5315 zone.
PVA High Edge = 5377 PVA Low Edge = 5336 Prior POC = 5362
PTG 3 Day Cycle
EXCLUSIVE OFFER
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 90% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
ES Chart
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Failed Three-Day Cycle as price only achieved 30% of the cycle target and could not hold bid above CD1 Low (18861.75). Rare 10% occurrence, but demonstrates the shift in market sentiment to “risk-off.” We view this cycle failure as a “warning shot” for dynamic changes unfolding in “real-time” and as active participants of the market, we should heed the messages it is sending. Range was 594 handles on 771k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1: Once again price has far exceeded the projected CD1 average decline, so we’ll defer to Mr. Market to establish a new cycle low from today’s session. We’ll be looking for signs of price stabilization with volatility elevated with VIX back with a 20 + handle.
Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 18390, initially targets 18555 – 18602 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 18390, initially targets 18323 – 18284 zone.
PVA High Edge = 19618 PVA Low Edge = 18430 Prior POC = 18553
NQ Chart
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN