S&P 500 (ES)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: As expected, price did spill-over to higher prices achieving the Money Box Zone as well as the CD1 Penetration Level before reversing direction lower.

The Cycle Low was established at 6661.25 and will be used to measure the performance of this cycle’s potential.

Most of the session’s range was established during the morning session, as the afternoon period offered traders little rhythmic opportunity. As is the case daily, Market on Close (MOC) provided only the nimblest of traders scalping opportunities.

Range was 35 handles on 961k contracts exchanged

For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 9.16.25

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…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

Transition into Cycle Day 2: Normally for CD2 we are anticipating some consolidation MATD rhythms to begin the session, although today could be quite different with impactful volatility.

Market reaction could be wide and varied during the press conference, so Stay Calm and Manage Risk aggressively.

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Here’s a preview of what to expect from the Fed’s FOMC decision & press conference on September 17, 2025 — what the markets are broadly expecting, key points to watch, and possible risks. 

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What’s Widely Anticipated

1. Rate cut of 25 basis points
   Almost all forecasters think the Fed will cut the federal funds rate by 0.25% (25 bps), bringing it into the ~4.00–4.25% range. NDTV Profit+4Investopedia+4Saxo Bank+4

2. First cut since December 2024
   This will likely mark the end of a steady period of rate stability. Investopedia+2Bankrate+2

3. Dot Plot & Economic Projections

   • The Fed will release its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including the dot plot — what members expect rates will be in future meetings. Market News+2EY+2

   • Key questions: How many further cuts in 2025 do members expect? Two seems to be the consensus among many analysts. Market News+2Saxo Bank+2

   • Inflation and GDP projections will also be watched, especially whether inflation remains sticky and how much growth is revised down. EY+1

4. Labor market developments
   The Fed is increasingly concerned about softening in labor: rising unemployment, weakening hiring, jobs growth slowing. The statement is likely to reflect this more than in prior meetings. Market News+2Bankrate+2

5. Language on inflation vs employment
   Since inflation remains above target, but labor market risks are rising, the Fed is expected to maintain that future moves are “data-dependent.” They’ll likely tug between signaling caution about inflation and concern about labor weakness. EY+2Saxo Bank+2

6. Probability of dissent
   Given the trade-offs, there is a likelihood that at least one or a few FOMC members will dissent, either from those favoring a larger cut, or those more reluctant to ease given inflation risks. Saxo Bank+1

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What the Press Conference / Powell Could Emphasize

• Powell is expected to revisit themes from his Jackson Hole speech: that risks have shifted, labor market softening is “unmistakable,” and the Fed may need to adjust its stance. EY+1

• He may caution that although inflation is coming down, certain components (e.g. shelter, services) remain elevated. EY+1

• He’ll likely push back against any notion that cuts are on autopilot; he’ll stress that upcoming decisions are highly dependent on the incoming data. IG+1

• Questions may arise about Fed independence (given political pressures) and how those pressures might (or might not) influence decisions. MarketWatch+1

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Key Risks & What Could Surprise

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Market Impacts & What Investors Are Watching

• Because the 25 bps cut is largely expected, market reaction will likely depend more on forward guidance — what the Fed says about future rate cuts, inflation, etc. MarketPulse+1

• Expect bond yields (especially short-term) and the dollar to be sensitive to how dovish vs hawkish the statement and dot plot appear.

• Equities and risk assets may rally on dovish language; if the Fed seems more cautious, risk-assets could pull back.

• Inflation expectations markets (e.g., TIPS) will be watching for any sign the Fed believes inflation may drift upward again (tariff impacts, shelter, wage pressures).

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Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6675+-, initially targets 6685 – 6695 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6675+-, initially targets 6655 – 6650 zone.

PVA High Edge = 6675    PVA Low Edge = 6665         Prior POC = 6672

   ESU

Nasdaq (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Cycle Low was established at 24499.25 and will be used to measure the performance of this cycle’s potential. As expected, price did spill-over to higher prices achieving the Money Box Zone as well as the CD1 Penetration Level before reversing direction lower.

Range for this session was 148 handles on 320k contracts exchanged.

…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

Transition into Cycle Day 2:

Transition into Cycle Day 2: Normally for CD2 we are anticipating some consolidation MATD rhythms to begin the session, although today could be quite different with impactful volatility

Market reaction could be wide and varied during the press conference, so Stay Calm and Mange Risk aggressively.

NO PREDICTIONS…ONLY PREPARATION.

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Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 24535+-, initially targets 24580 – 24600 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 24535+-, initially targets 24495 – 24485 zone.

PVA High Edge = 24552     PVA Low Edge = 24512         Prior POC = 24537

NQU

Economic Calendar

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN