Trade Strategy 9.27.24

Posted on by September 26, 2024

S&P 500

Important Note: We have begun publishing the PTG Trading Room Daily RECAP which you should be receiving at the end of each trading day. This publication is a more detailed review of how the trading unfolded throughout the day from our viewpoint. It is an “educational” complimentary companion to be used in conjunction with the Daily Trade Strategy. It continues to be “work-in-progress”, so please offer feedback as to content, style and relevance. We are always striving to make PTG Products and Services the very best

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Positive Three-Day Cycle as the breakout fulfilled the DTS’ upside target at 5820 outlined in previous briefings. Overnight inventory was 100% long coming into the RTH session and failed to attract new buyers. Price decisively reversed direction during opening range, correcting the inventory imbalance. Range was 51 handles on 1.275 contracts exchanged.

For a more detailed recap of prior trading session click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 9.26.24

 …Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1 

This leads us into Cycle Day 1: The primary goal for Cycle Day 1 (CD1) is to identify and secure a new cycle low from which to rally. 

Market Context:

  • The market is transitioning from a five-day consolidation pattern with a new All-Time High in place.
  • Value migration continues higher, indicating that higher prices are being accepted by the market.
  • Bulls need to defend the 5785-5795 zone on dips to maintain control and ideally reclaim the 5810-5815 area to confirm a breakout.

Key Levels:

  • Primary Support: 5785-5795 zone
  • Secondary Support: 5755 – 5745 Key Support
  • Primary Resistance: 5810-5815 zone (Key to breakout and further highs)
  • Previous Cycle High: Monitor for potential reaction or rejection at the recent All-Time High

Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5805, initially targets 5815 – 5820 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5805, initially targets 5795 – 5785 zone.

PVA High Edge = 5812     PVA Low Edge = 5789         Prior POC = 5802

   ES Chart (Target Master)

 

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Positive Three-Day Cycle as the breakout fulfilled the upside Target Master Level 3 (20536). Overnight inventory was 100% long coming into the RTH session and failed to attract new buyers. Price decisively reversed direction during opening range, correcting the inventory imbalance. Range was 350 handles on 502k contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1 

This leads us into Cycle Day 1: The primary goal for Cycle Day 1 (CD1) is to identify and secure a new cycle low from which to rally. Average Decline measures 20112

Key Levels:

  • Primary Support:  20315 – 20285 zone
  • Secondary Support: 20240 – 20205 Key Support
  • Primary Resistance: 20407 – 20430 zone (Key to breakout and further highs)
  • Previous Cycle High: Monitor for potential reaction or rejection at the recent All-Time High

Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 20345, initially targets 20407 – 20430 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 20345, initially targets 20315 – 20285 zone.

PVA High Edge = 20396       PVA Low Edge = 20192         Prior POC = 20346

NQ Chart (Target Master)

 

Economic Calendar

 

 

 

 

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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