S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: September is historically a weak month and if the first full trading session is a barometer, hang on for the ride. Markets are back on the defensive following a 10-day lateral consolidation period to close out the summer, as sellers struck hard and decisively throughout the day, particularly when our target / support zone (5630 – 5620) broke, closing near lows. Range expanded to 153 handles on 1.696M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2: Cycle Low is now in-place at 5516.75 and this will be our benchmark for the next rally. Given the momentum weakness in prior session, the best case the bulls can hope for is a relief rally and stabilization above the cycle low. Worse case is continuation of liquidation until sellers are “flushed-out” and the BTFD crowd returns. Typically trend days are followed by MATD rhythms for Cycle Day 2, so we’ll be anticipating this for today’s action, but remaining flexible to Mr. Market’s wishes.
Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5525, initially targets 5555 – 5565 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5525, initially targets 5515 – 5510 zone.
PVA High Edge = 5598 PVA Low Edge = 5532 Prior POC = 5583
ES Chart
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: September is historically a weak month and if the first full trading session is a barometer, hang on for the ride. Markets are back on the defensive following a 10-day lateral consolidation period to close out the summer. Sellers struck hard and decisively throughout the day, closing near lows. Range expanded to 772 handles on 615k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2: Cycle Low is now in-place at 18911 and this will be our benchmark for the next rally. Given the momentum weakness in prior session, the best case the bulls can hope for is a relief rally and stabilization above the cycle low. Worse case is continuation of liquidation until sellers are “flushed-out” and the BTFD crowd returns. Typically trend days are followed by MATD rhythms for Cycle Day 2, so we’ll be anticipating this for today’s action, but remaining flexible to Mr. Market’s wishes.
Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 18950, initially targets 19046 – 19108 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 18950, initially targets 18870 – 18850 zone.
PVA High Edge = 19346 PVA Low Edge = 18911 Prior POC = 19046
NQ Chart
Economic Calendar
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN