S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: As expected for Cycle Day 1 (CD1), long liquidation down trend continuation pushed price lower fulfilling CD1 Statistical Extremes and established a new cycle low at 5394. Multiple monthly supports were broken as “risk-off” sentiment has metastasized throughout the markets. Range expanded to 138 handles on 2.222M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2: Cycle Low is now in-place at 5394 and this will be our benchmark for the next rally. Price is currently at a crossroad of both Time & Price (see screenshot below). This week will be an important “litmus test” for both the bull and bear camps.
Key economic calendar featuring CPI / PPI reports as traders are handicapping a 25 basis point cut in interest rates for September. Typically trend days are followed by MATD rhythms for Cycle Day 2, so we’ll be anticipating this for today’s action, but remaining flexible to Mr. Market’s wishes.
Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5415, initially targets 5435 – 5440 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5415, initially targets 5395 – 5390 zone.
PVA High Edge = 5478 PVA Low Edge = 5411 Prior POC = 5417
ES Chart (Daily Time & Price)
ES (60 min Target Master)
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: As expected for Cycle Day 1 (CD1), long liquidation down trend continuation pushed price lower fulfilling CD1 Statistical Extremes and established a new cycle low at 18339.75. Multiple monthly supports were broken as “risk-off” sentiment has metastasized throughout the markets. Range expanded to 632 handles on 702k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2: Cycle Low is now in-place at 18339.75 and this will be our benchmark for the next rally. This week will be an important “litmus test” for both the bull and bear camps with an economic calendar featuring CPI / PPI reports, as traders are handicapping a 25 basis point cut in interest rates for September. Typically trend days are followed by MATD rhythms for Cycle Day 2, so we’ll be anticipating this for today’s action, but remaining flexible to Mr. Market’s wishes.
Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 18400, initially targets 18510 – 18620 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 18400, initially targets 18290 – 18255 zone.
PVA High Edge = 18757 PVA Low Edge = 18425 Prior POC = 18457
NQ Chart (60 min Target Master)
Economic Calendar
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN