Theme of the Day:
“Riding the 89 Train” – A Bullish Locomotive 🚂🐂
Cycle Day 3 delivered in full force, with early core targets already achieved before the RTH open. David marked it a wild-card session, but the market quickly clarified—this was a one-way trip north. Any attempt to fade strength was met with swift pain, while disciplined longs found themselves cruising first class.
Market Behavior & Structure
-
Cycle Framework: CD3 with fulfilled targets → “wild-card” environment. Manny reminded the room: first day of the 4-day series (S1H), which “sets the table” for the next 3 days.
-
Line in the Sand: ES 6725. Above this = only green lights. Below was noise.
-
Support Zones: 6700–6705 held firm as the launchpad.
-
Targets: From 6725, upside opened to 6735–6740, then 6766.67 (3-day cycle target) → fulfilled like clockwork.
Trader Playbook Highlights
-
Early Alerts: Manny’s homework trade (Deep Support Buy at ES 6672.50) was textbook—tag, reclaim, retest, rip.
-
Globex & Opening Range: Globex midpoint (6727.50) aligned neatly with intraday LIS. Traders who mapped this out avoided short traps.
-
The 89 EMA “Train Ride”: David hammered the point—structure leaned long, 89 EMA bullish, so shorts were sucker traps. Staying aligned paid in full.
-
A10 Ripper: Afternoon acceleration confirmed bulls’ dominance, with Manny and David reinforcing NO SELLING.
Psychology & Discipline Notes
-
The Pitfalls of FOMO: Several traders admitted to forcing shorts—David and Manny called this the vicious FOMO cycle: miss the long → chase short → get crushed → revenge trade → repeat.
-
Greed & Overtrading: Manny shared battle scars—overcoming FOMO led straight into the greed trap. Wisdom of the day: “Protect the gains. Don’t risk the day’s profits on late-session noise.”
-
Trader Hacks: Bruce F’s “green/red sticky note reminder” (long bias only) was simple yet effective. David approved: “Green Light, Red Light.”
Macro Flavor
-
Political theater with the U.S. Gov’t shutdown risk loomed, but as David noted, “Markets love a Gov’t Shutdown.” Big MOC flows (+$4B Tuesday, +$900M imbalance today) confirmed institutional buy programs were in charge.
Closing Tape
-
Afternoon sequence tracked perfectly to the S1H cycle pivots: 10:30 high → 12:30 low → 2:30 high.
-
The final push topped out around 6765–6766, cycle targets fulfilled.
-
Into the close: light MOC imbalance, muted fireworks, but the bullish agenda was undeniable.
✅ Summary:
October kicks off with strength, discipline, and a reminder that trading IS art—but only if rules frame the canvas. Those who aligned with the bullish structure rode the 89 EMA train to success. Those who fought it… got a new “A-Hole” ripped, as David bluntly put it. 🎯