Theme of the Day
Cycle Day 1 Decline – “Trade Today’s Rhythms, Not Yesterday’s”
After Wednesday’s textbook bullish trend ride, Thursday flipped the script. What began with momentum spillover quickly turned into a CD1 decline, reminding traders of David’s mantra: “Yesterday was LONG…Today IS SHORT.”
Market Behavior & Structure
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Pre-RTH Setup: Price pushed into the D-Level early, with LIS pegged at 6755. Gamma notes outlined resistance at 6750–6765 and support at 6700–6680.
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CD1 Sell Pressure: From the open, NQ led the weakness after tagging its TTT extreme, dragging ES lower. Rhythms favored selling bounces, with longs “punched in the face” on failed holds at LIS and ON lows.
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Cycle Range Precision: The CD1 average decline target (6743.43) was hit with remarkable accuracy, producing a sharp intraday reversal bounce. David called the levels “ULTRA PRECISE” and once again highlighted the power of 3-Day Cycle math.
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Afternoon Dynamics: Reversals off the D-Level and range low projections provided tactical long windows, but Manny emphasized alignment—no buying lows blindly, only engaging when the tape confirmed a shift.
Key Highlights & Lessons
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Discipline over Prediction: Manny reminded the room to fight the instinct to “pick bottoms” and instead trade alignment. His nuance: “I do not want to BUY lows, I want to stay in alignment.”
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First Pullback = Best Quality: David reinforced that the highest-quality entries come from the first discount after a bull shift (or premium after a bear shift). Later pullbacks may look similar, but they are statistically weaker.
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Structure Awareness: Traders who respected LIS (6755) and the CD1 decline framework stayed on the right side. Contrarians were quickly humbled.
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Room Insights: The group exchanged perspectives on FVGs, algo-driven levels, and mental discipline. Roy’s questions about shifts and MA reliance sparked useful discussions about trade qualification.
Market-on-Close (MOC) Flow
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Sell Programs Dominated: $640M in MOC sell imbalance first reported, later expanded to $1.1B in sell flows, underscoring the bearish tone into the bell.
Room Vibe
Despite the grind of a CD1 decline, camaraderie and humor ran strong: sombreros, Pancho Villa quips, and even Carnac the Magnificent made cameos. Traders shared personal challenges (Manny’s contact lens mishap, Bruce’s MIM confusion) alongside tactical execution.
Closing Thought
Thursday was a reality check after Wednesday’s bullish ride. CD1 reminded the room:
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Trade today’s rhythms—not yesterday’s bias.
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Respect cycle math—it’s “voodoo” precise.
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Manage risk first, opportunity second.
Or, as David put it: “Bull shifts give you quality pullbacks, bear shifts give you premiums. Know the difference.”