Cycle Day 1: “Ski Slope Bull” Edition
Textbook. Surgical. Borderline disrespectful to randomness.
Cycle Day 1 delivered exactly what the playbook promised — controlled downside pressure, escalating into a late-day liquidity flush that left bulls looking for ski patrol… and possibly orthopedic surgeons.
Opening Tone
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Solid start out of the gate — always nice to get paid early and calm the nerves.
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Early strength quickly gave way to a sell-lean rhythm, consistent with CD1 expectations.
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Flexibility remained key as intraday rotations teased hope… then quietly removed it.
Key Structural Moments
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6810 GEX strike set the gravitational pull.
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6805 tagged → Bulls officially on defense.
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Failure to reclaim PL @ 6817 kept bears firmly in control.
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Warning issued early:
“Bulls teetering on the brink of a mass liquidation/extinction event below 6800”
Spoiler alert: that wasn’t hyperbole.
Cycle Metrics – Laser Precision
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CD1 Average Decline Projection: 6798.42 → Tagged & Bagged
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Projected Range Low: 6793.74 → Fulfilled
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Violation Level: 6767.04 → Reached
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127.2% Weekly Consolidation Extension: 6775 → Final print
That’s not luck.
That’s cycle structure doing cycle things.
“3-Day Cycle is pure VooDoo.”
Confirmed. Again.
Afternoon Trade Environment
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Chop increased into the afternoon — rollover + OPEX both exerting influence.
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Momentum waned to the downside, but price never meaningfully bid higher.
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Classic late-day complacency… right before the rug pull.
Closing Bell Drama
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MOC Sell Imbalance:
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First print: $1.766B SELL
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Final print: ~$5B SELL
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Result: Waterfall into the close, locking in:
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Cycle Day 1 low-of-day close
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A new Key Low Marker @ 6775
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Who hit the down button?
Answer: Everyone.
Final Takeaway
This session will be archived under:
“How to Respect Cycle Day 1 Without Overthinking It.”
The market skied downhill backwards, scared, unstable, and with broken form — yet somehow still managed to hit every single mapped objective on the way down.
Textbook execution.
Ultra precision.
No mercy.