Cycle Day 1 – Precision Dip, Rhythmic Consolidation, and a Whole Lotta Pivot Drama
KEY LINKS:
PTG Home → polaristradinggroup.com
DTS Daily Strategy → polaristradinggroup.com/blog/ptg-daily-trade-strategy/
CFTC Rule 4.41 Disclaimer → (standard PTG disclosure as always)
Morning Session – “Can Anyone Hear Me? …Bueller?”
David kicked off on mobile due to early-session connectivity chaos, but the room carried the torch like seasoned pros.
• Early chatter focused on strength, “higher,” and general morning banter.
• Bosier, ever the wingman, uploaded the levels PDFs for ES, CLF, and NQ without breaking stride.
• Pivot tests began early — and boy did NQ love failing at the pivot today.
Mid-Morning – The First Act of Target Tagging
By 10:27 AM:
“Both upper AND lower target zones fulfilled.”
– The type of line that makes all the cycle geeks simultaneously nod like, “Yep, textbook.”
DTS briefing hit the wire. Manny dropped the Trade of the Day, Scenario #1:
Support Buy 6844–6848 (ES)
Buyers defend the zone, delta flips, stacked bids… textbook stuff.
The targets? 5 / 10 / 15 / 20 pts.
Manny pulled +10 @ 6862 and +15 @ 6867 — chef’s kiss.
David: “Trade of the day… confirmed.”
The room: collective yup.
Trader Talk – Psychology, Process, and Position Sizing Therapy
PeterN opened a full-on AMA:
• How to distinguish real trends vs fakeouts
• When the chart is too “flip-floppy”
• Fear of reversals
• Position sizing
• How do you calculate risk while the market tap dances?
The crew delivered a masterclass:
– DanV: “Your edge is risk management. Consistency + circuit breakers = longevity.”
– ram: “Probability mindset.”
– John B: ATA + Dynamic Risk Reward tools.
– Everyone: “Size smaller.”
– And always: Stops are safety. Not feelings.
Charts: Down, Up, Down Again, Now Up
It was a day of intermittent chart outages, reconnects, and “should be back online soon” announcements.
Classic tech gremlins.
But the market didn’t care.
Early Afternoon – Money Box Wizardry
Bruce F went full Fib Merlin:
Drew a 1.618 extension from 6845 → 6870 and got a “money box” at 6835–6838.
David: “Voodoo Bruce lol.”
Bruce: “Bingo.”
Then David hit the room with precision data:
Cycle Day 1 Average Decline Projection → 6834.65
Actual LOD → 6836.25
Add ±5pts zonal variance = direct hit.
Chef’s kiss × 2.
Late Session – Imbalance Shenanigans & Organized Fakery
Closing hour was pure algo theater:
• Initial BUY imbalance $1B → instantly absorbed
• Then… a flip to SELL imbalance $2.25B
• “Closing Games”
• “Nothing REAL these days… All Fakery.”
• Final settle? Near mid-VWAP, because of course.
The day locked in as another tight consolidation rhythm, reinforcing:
Contraction → Expansion… pending.
Stay tuned.
Closing Bell – Wisdom from the Desk
• “Capital Preservation Fryday on deck…”
• “…Could be a Breakout Fryday.”
• “The range edges are set.”
• And the fan favorite:
“Do not put a down payment on that Lambo just yet…”