“Buy ’em cheap… if you’ve got the courage.”
Today’s tape was the definition of Hotdog Day — mustard-ready but no real meat — as traders collectively held their breath waiting for tomorrow’s FOMC fireworks. But even in the lull, Cycle Day 1 played its rhythms with textbook precision.
🔶 Key Level: 6855 — The Line in the Sand (…and a love affair)
As telegraphed early:
→ “Price is holding 6855 like it’s a love affair.”
This level acted as a magnet and a trampoline all session — a battle-tested reference that refused to crack despite repeated pokes from bored sellers.
CD1 logic held firm:
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Buyers defended the edge.
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Shorts never got follow-through.
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And every dip kept finding hands waiting below.
🟢 Bull Scenario Executed: Precision Play
From the morning brief:
Bull Scenario: Above 6855, target 6875–6880.
Manny’s script nailed the intraday rotations, banking:
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+5
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+10
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+12
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+18 at ONH
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And yes… another +10 at the 69s
Textbook CD1 behavior: pullback, firm bid, squeeze toward initial targets, stall at value.
🌫️ Midday: VWAP Drift & No Clean Edge
After the ONH tag, the session slipped straight into:
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VWAP / mid-zone chop
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Acceptance-building
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Zero clean edges
A few probes, a few fades, but nothing directional. If you forced trades here… the market would’ve politely invoiced you for your impatience.
📉 Close: Classic CD1 Discounting
Into the final hour:
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MOC flipped from +$2.2B Buy to –$1.5B Sell
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Liquidity absorbed both sides
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Market drifted to the lows into the bell
PTGDavid signing off on the close as:
“Cycle Day 1… closing on the lows… Buy ’em Cheap!”
A CD1 that ends weak into Fed Day?
That’s the market resetting inventory like a pro golfer placing the ball on a tee.
📘 Summary
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Cycle Day: 1
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Key Level: 6855 magnet turned anchor
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Bias: Bullish over LIS, but neutralized by Fed anticipation
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Price Action: Repeated dips → defended; ONH hit; midday equilibrium
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Afternoon: Drain, fade, and close on lows
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Tomorrow: Strap in — Fed Day volatility injection incoming