Trading Room RECAP 2.18.25

Posted on by February 18, 2025

February 18, 2025

The trading session began with an early fulfillment of the initial upside target zone for the S&P 500 (ES), as outlined in the DTS Briefing. PTGDavid emphasized the bullish scenario, expecting sustained bids above 6140, targeting the 6150-6155 range.

Key Market Developments:

  • Crude Oil (CL) Rollover: Noted transition to the April (J) contract.
  • Cycle Day Consideration: Despite the holiday session, the 3-Day Cycle remained intact, designating today as Cycle Day 1. Historical data suggests that cycle ranges tend to be narrower under such conditions.
  • Early Trade Bias: Lean towards the sell-side following initial market movements.

Market Execution & Trade Updates:

  • Crude Oil (CL): OPR Long Target 1 filled.
  • NASDAQ (NQ): Short positions initiated on premium and OPR levels, with initial targets met.
  • S&P 500 (ES): A4 short position executed and filled.
  • Bearish Scenario for NQ: Sustained offers below 22,235 targeted 22,192 – 22,172.
  • CD1 Low Retest at 6131: Anticipated further price decline, provided 6131 could be converted into resistance.

Midday Observations & Strategy Adjustments:

  • No New Trade Edge: Prices remained range-bound around Mid VWAP (Neutral Zone).
  • First Pullback (PB) Tendency: A higher quality opportunity noted per JAR methodology.
  • Lunchtime Market Outlook: Price action aligned with a “normal” Cycle Day 2 rhythmic structure.

Afternoon & Closing Movements:

  • Initial Balance Low Target at 6119 hit, triggering a buy response and forming a new reference structure low.
  • Buyers needed to defend this level on further retests.
  • Crude Oil (CL) OPR target reached in late session trading.

Market-on-Close (MOC) Impact:

  • Significant shift in MOC flows:
    • 3:50 PM: MOC Sell Imbalance of $400M reported.
    • 3:54 PM: MOC flipped to a $2.7B Buy Imbalance, sparking a late-session rally.
  • Final Hour Volatility: The market ripped higher into the closing bell, underscoring the importance of MOC flows in driving end-of-day momentum.

Final Thoughts:

The session showcased a mix of early technical precision, cycle-based trade planning, and a late-day liquidity-driven rally. As always, PTG emphasized staying aligned with the dominant force, managing risk, and executing only Triple-A setups while maintaining hard stop-losses.

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