Wednesday · February 4, 2026
Cycle Day 1 — Shake the Tree, See What Falls 🌳
KEY LINKS (bookmark, don’t bookmark regret):
🔗 Home: https://polaristradinggroup.com/
🔗 Daily Trade Strategy: https://polaristradinggroup.com/blog/ptg-daily-trade-strategy/
🔗 Daily Range Calculator: https://polaristradinggroup.com/daily-range-calculator/
📜 CFTC Rule 4.41 Disclaimer: https://www.dropbox.com/s/hq5ukmcnparpae9/CFTC%20Rule%204.41.jpg?dl=0
The Setup
Yesterday’s liquidation didn’t break the market —
it tuned it.
Cycle Day 1 opened with a tight throat, sweaty palms, and bad positioning.
Exactly what the tape ordered.
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Line in the Sand: 6950
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Congestion Cluster: 6945 – 6975
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Translation: “Enter here at your own emotional risk.”
The Game Plan (Spoiler: It Worked)
🟢 Bull Case: Hold north of 6950 ±5
Targets: 6965 → 6970 → 6975
🔴 Bear Case: Acceptance south of 6950 ±5
Targets: 6930 → 6920 → 6910
And because this is Cycle Day 1, not story time…
➡️ Both sides got paid.
Upper edge tagged ✔️
Lower edge tagged ✔️
Market shrugged. Moved on.
The Real Story
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6965 hit overnight — no applause, just execution
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6910 printed — cue the “this feels different” crowd
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CD1 Range Projection: 6891.57
💥 Tagged. Bagged. Logged.
This wasn’t panic.
This was inventory repricing with intent.
Midday Reality Check
Sellers pressed.
Fear showed up right on schedule.
Then… buyers walked in at the exact spot they were supposed to.
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Daily D-Level / CD1 Violation Zone defended
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Longs from the zone?
Now sitting pretty. -
Longs who waited for “confirmation”?
Still watching.
The Close
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Price rotated back toward VWAP
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Romulan Neutral Zone achieved
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MOC Buy Imbalance: ~$1.5B 💰
Cycle Day 1 didn’t need fireworks.
It needed participation damage.
Final Take
Cycle Day 1 did its job:
Flush weak inventory
Reprice risk
Reload the cycle
If you feared the Reaper at the lows…
that was the point.
📈 BTFD wasn’t a slogan today — it was the assignment.