Trading Room RECAP 3.11.25

Posted on by March 11, 2025

Pre-Market & Opening Insights

PTGDavid started the session by reviewing the market’s broader structure and expectations for Cycle Day 2 (CD2). He noted that the previous day’s reclaim had set up a bullish scenario, where holding above key levels could lead to further upside.

  • @ES (S&P 500 Futures): A bullish scenario was outlined, with price expected to sustain above 5625 and initially target the 5650–5665 zone.
  • @NQ (Nasdaq 100 Futures): Similarly, a reclaim of key levels was anticipated to trigger upside movement.
  • Market Volatility Alert: PTGDavid pointed out that Average Daily Ranges (ADR) had expanded, increasing intraday swing volatility, requiring traders to adjust risk exposure accordingly.

Early Session – Initial Rally & Rejection

  • The S&P 500 quickly hit the 5650 target, fulfilling the first bullish projection. However, price failed to hold above key resistance levels, indicating a lack of sustained buying interest.
  • A rejection at Daily Pivot 5652.75 signaled a potential shift in momentum.
  • PTGDavid began questioning whether “Turn Around Tuesday” would take shape, suggesting a possible downside reversal.

Mid-Morning – Transition to Bearish Control

  • By mid-morning, VWAP was tested multiple times, with responsive buyers stepping in, but overall price action remained weak.
  • PTGDavid noted that the market structure favored bears as price action struggled to sustain above critical levels.
  • News Catalyst: A Trump administration announcement of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from Canada added another layer of uncertainty.
  • The S&P 500 dropped below 5625, triggering a Bear Scenario, targeting the 5560–5545 range.

Late Morning – Liquidation Phase Begins

  • Bearish pressure intensified, leading to a break of the 5571 pivot level, confirming the liquidation phase.
  • PTGDavid described the market as a “Wack-a-Mole” situation, where every rally attempt was met with selling.
  • SPX (S&P 500 Index) down 1%: The index continued its decline, aligning with broader risk-off sentiment.
  • He stressed that traders should not marry any positions, emphasizing the importance of being flexible and adapting to the prevailing trend.
  • Buy Programs Activated: Around 11:12 AM, PTGDavid noted that buying programs were hitting the market, suggesting the potential for a temporary relief rally.

Afternoon – Failed Bullish Attempts & Continued Selling

  • By early afternoon, the market attempted to stabilize, but sellers remained in control.
  • PTGDavid observed that tech stocks had officially entered a bear market, with the Nasdaq-100 down over 20% from its all-time high.
  • A Market-on-Close (MOC) sell imbalance of $1 billion confirmed that institutional selling pressure remained strong.
  • The S&P 500 settled near its midpoint and VWAP, indicating neutral short-term positioning but overall bearish dominance.

Key Educational Takeaways

1. Understanding Market Cycles and Trade Expectations

  • PTGDavid’s commentary reinforced the importance of recognizing cycle days (CD1, CD2, etc.) to anticipate price action behavior.
  • On Cycle Day 2 (CD2), the expectation was for morning trend movements, followed by potential mean reversion.
  • Traders can use cycle structures to set realistic trade expectations and avoid getting caught on the wrong side of the market.

2. Adapting to Volatility and Expanding Ranges

  • The Average Daily Range (ADR) had increased, leading to larger intraday swings.
  • PTGDavid advised traders to adjust position sizing and consider using micro contracts to manage risk effectively.
  • When volatility increases, it’s crucial to widen stops, reduce trade frequency, and remain patient.

3. Importance of Key Technical Levels

  • The session highlighted the significance of Daily Pivots, VWAP, and key inflection points (e.g., 5571, 5625 on ES).
  • Rejections and reclaim attempts around these levels offered clear trade setups.
  • Identifying strong support/resistance zones in advance helps traders execute with confidence.

4. Recognizing When to Exit & Avoiding Biases

  • PTGDavid repeatedly emphasized that traders should not marry positions.
  • The phrase “Love’em or Leave’em” was a reminder to stay flexible and exit trades when price action invalidates the original thesis.
  • This mindset prevents emotional trading and excessive losses.

5. The Role of Institutional Order Flow (MOC & Buy Programs)

  • The MOC imbalance of $1 billion to the sell side reinforced that institutions were still offloading positions.
  • Large buy programs hitting the market midday briefly provided relief, but without sustained follow-through, they were just temporary squeezes.
  • Understanding institutional order flow dynamics can help traders avoid false breakouts and recognize real trend reversals.

6. Maintaining Balance & Mental Clarity

  • After an intense trading session, PTGDavid decided to go for a bike ride, emphasizing the importance of mental resets.
  • Avoiding overtrading and staying emotionally detached is crucial for long-term success.

Final Thoughts

The March 11, 2025, trading session was a textbook example of how market structure, volatility, and institutional order flow interact. PTGDavid’s commentary provided real-time trade guidance, risk management strategies, and psychological insights, all essential components for consistent trading success.

The key takeaway? Volatility creates opportunity—but only for those who manage risk and stay adaptable.

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