Pre-Market & Market Open
- 7:35 AM: PTGDavid shared key links for the day, including:
- PTG Daily Trade Strategy
- Daily Range Calculator
- CFTC Rule 4.41 Disclaimer (reminding traders of the risks involved in futures trading)
- 9:09 AM: PTG officially welcomed Curly Trades as the newest trader. Several members greeted him.
- 9:08 AM: PTGDavid confirmed that charts were online, and traders could access market data.
Early Session – Market Bias & Setup
- Early bullish lean as price traded above VWAP and A4.
- 9:44 AM: PTGDavid noted that the buying momentum had dried up, and price began dripping lower.
- 9:45 AM: Reminder that a “lean” is a directional bias, not an automatic trade—setups must align before execution.
- 9:47 AM: Cautionary note about potential “snappy/trappy” price action, urging traders to stay focused.
- 10:24 AM: Market consolidated within the prior open range, signaling a slower trading environment.
Midday – Pre-Fed Trading
- 11:06 AM: Market remained in a grinding phase ahead of the Fed announcement.
- 11:53 AM: Bullish push ahead of the FOMC press conference, following a typical pre-Fed rhythm.
Fed Announcement & Press Conference (2:00 PM – 3:00 PM)
- 2:01 PM: Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as expected.
- 2:03 PM: CNBC reported that the Fed’s dot plot shifted more hawkish, with four officials now expecting no rate cuts in 2025, up from just one in December.
- 2:05 PM: PTGDavid emphasized that PTG’s strategy remained the same:
- Follow the plan
- Take only high-probability setups
- Manage risk with hard stop-losses
- 2:33 PM – 2:42 PM: PTGDavid shared key takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s press conference, including:
- Lower GDP projections for 2025
- Labor market remains balanced
- Inflation expectations rising, driven by tariffs
- Powell’s claim that inflation is transitory (a term previously criticized)
- Traders reacted bullishly to Powell’s comments, despite skepticism from PTGDavid and others.
- 2:44 PM: PTGDavid commented on traders buying into Powell’s vague statements, while Bruce F remarked, “How to say nothing but speak a lot.”
Late Session – Cycle Targets & Reversal
- 3:06 PM: PTG’s Cycle Target of 5745 was fulfilled.
- 3:07 PM: Identified the next upside target zone: 5758 – 5762.
- 3:27 PM: Hard reversal followed once cycle targets were reached, catching late buyers off guard.
Market Close – Final Notes
- 3:50 PM: Reported a $1.4 billion Market-on-Close (MOC) sell imbalance, signaling heavy institutional selling.
- 3:59 PM: PTGDavid signed off, confirming he would be back in the morning for another trading session.
Key Takeaways
✔ Early bullish lean faded, leading to choppy price action.
✔ Fed announcement triggered volatility, with traders reacting to Powell’s comments.
✔ PTG’s cycle target of 5745 was hit before a sharp reversal.
✔ $1.4 billion MOC sell imbalance marked the close, adding downside pressure.
✔ PTGDavid emphasized risk management, patience, and alignment with dominant market forces.