Trading Room RECAP 3.21.25

Friday’s trading session unfolded in a rhythmic dance of price action, heavily influenced by the $4.7 trillion options expiration (OPEX) event. PTGDavid’s early morning analysis set the stage, highlighting a bearish scenario in both the ES and NQ markets, with key support zones quickly tested and fulfilled. As expected, price action oscillated in a wide-range basing pattern, a direct aftermath of the FOMC decision earlier in the week.

As the market digested the impact of Triple Witching OPEX, he emphasized the sheer magnitude of the expiration event: $2.8 trillion in SPX options and $645 billion in single stock options were set to roll off, injecting volatility and uncertainty into the session. By mid-morning, Cycle Day 1’s average decline had already been met at 5674.25, reinforcing the structured rhythm of the market.

The early session saw a sandbox range emerge between 52 and 72, offering a two-way trading environment. Bulls attempted to clear and convert (C&C) the 5675 handle, a key level that could have set the stage for further upside momentum. However, the market remained in tight consolidation—a scalper’s paradise, as PTGDavid put it.

By 11 AM, a bearish reversal materialized right on cue, signaling another shift in market sentiment. The Opening Range Trifecta was stopped out, reflecting the lack of sustained directional movement—a classic OPEX-induced phenomenon.

Afternoon trading was largely uneventful, with PTGDavid noting the lack of momentum and conviction among traders. As the session approached the close, the much-anticipated MOC (Market on Close) BUY imbalance of $8.5 billion surfaced. While significant, PTGDavid opted to remain a spectator, noting that it was simply not his edge.

With the final bell approaching and end-of-day “shenanigans” unfolding, he signed off in classic fashion—observing but not engaging, allowing the market to do what it does best. “HAGWEE” (Have a great weekend, everyone).

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