“Buyers are continuing Friday’s late day rally achieving the 5992.50 CD2 Penetration Target.”
Recap: PTGDavid notes that buyers extended the momentum from Friday’s late rally, hitting a Cycle Day 2 (CD2) target of 5992.50 on the S&P 500 futures (@ES).
8:46:31 AM – Bullish Control
“As long as price > 5950….bulls maintain core control.”
Recap: He establishes 5950 as a critical support level for @ES, suggesting that bulls remain in charge above this threshold.
8:47:04 AM – Anticipating MATD Rhythms
“Still anticipating MATD rhythms to develop early sledding.”
Recap: PTGDavid expects Market Auction Theory Dynamics (MATD) patterns to emerge early in the session, hinting at rhythmic price movements traders can exploit.
8:47:38 AM – 5-Day POC
“5-day POC = 5965.”
Recap: He identifies 5965 as the 5-day Point of Control (POC), a key volume level where the most trading activity occurred over the past five days.
8:56:18 AM – @NQ Targets Achieved
“@NQ also fulfilled its upper CD2 Penetration Target >>> 21065.50 and Money Box >>> 21075.75.”
Recap: Nasdaq 100 futures (@NQ) hit its CD2 target of 21065.50 and a secondary “Money Box” target of 21075.75, indicating strong bullish momentum.
9:43:41 AM – Shift to Sell-Side
“Current lean sell-side…”
Recap: PTGDavid shifts his bias to a sell-side perspective, possibly due to signs of exhaustion or resistance after the earlier rally.
Recap: PTGDavid shares the latest ISM Manufacturing data, showing a mixed report with weaker-than-expected new orders (48.6) and employment (47.6), but a sharp rise in prices paid (62.4), potentially influencing market sentiment.
10:15:23 AM – 10:16:07 AM – Open Range Trade Updates
“@NQ Open Range Short hit all targets.”
“@ES Open Range Short Hit targets.”
“@CL Open Range Long filled 1st target and stop trail elected.”
Recap: PTGDavid reports successful trades: shorts on @NQ and @ES from the open range hit their targets, while a long on crude oil futures (@CL) reached its first target with a trailing stop activated.
10:16:52 AM – Line in the Sand Confirmed
“Today’s Line in the Sand Zone between 5940 – 5950 and Mr. Market agrees.”
Recap: He confirms 5940–5950 as a pivotal range, validated by market behavior.
10:17:31 AM – Profile Imbalance Comment
“► Comment per DTS Briefing >>> ‘The late day rip created a “single-print” imbalance on the profile. It will be critical to…'”
Recap: Referencing a Daily Trade Strategy (DTS) briefing, he highlights a “single-print” imbalance from Friday’s rally, suggesting an area of low volume that could act as a magnet or rejection zone (note: message cuts off).
10:43:39 AM – Break Announcement
“Break time…back shortly.”
Recap: PTGDavid takes a brief break.
10:58:35 AM – Backtest Rejection
“@ES Back test of PL 5971 being rejected.”
Recap: After returning, he notes that a retest of the Prior Low (now resistance) at 5971 on @ES is failing, reinforcing bearish pressure.
Midday Session (11:12 AM – 1:44 PM EST)
11:12:07 AM – Consolidation Phase
“OK Cycle Day 2 balancing/consolidation under way.”
Recap: He observes that @ES is entering a consolidation phase typical of Cycle Day 2, a balancing act after Friday’s rally.
11:12:23 AM – Waiting for Direction
“Patient awaiting the next directional move.”
Recap: PTGDavid adopts a wait-and-see approach for the next significant price action.
“@ES Getting a nice buy response from D-LEVEL (5831.50.”
Recap: Buyers step in at the @ES D-Level of 5831.50, halting the decline.
3:33:29 PM – Bull Target
“Bulls need to reclaim PH 5848.”
Recap: For bulls to regain momentum, they must recapture the Prior High at 5848.
3:42:53 PM – MOC Prep
“MOC on deck.”
Recap: Signals the Market On Close (MOC) orders are approaching, which could influence the close.
3:51:10 PM – Buy Imbalance
“Buy Imbalance 700M mice nutz.”
Recap: Reports a $700 million buy imbalance in MOC orders, though “mice nutz” suggests it’s relatively small or insignificant.
3:56:07 PM – Closing Condition
“Position squaring…price > 5848…needs to hold for the close.”
Recap: Notes position squaring into the close, with 5848 as a key level to hold for bulls.
3:57:53 PM – Range Summary
“D-LEVEL TO D-LEVEL.”
Recap: Summarizes the day’s action as moving between D-Levels (significant support/resistance zones).
4:01:01 PM – Long Setup
“PKB Long setup into the close.”
Recap: Suggests a Potential Key Bounce (PKB) long trade setup as the market closes, possibly based on the buy response at lower levels.
Key Themes and Takeaways
Market Dynamics: PTGDavid tracks @ES and @NQ closely, using technical levels (e.g., CD2 targets, POCs, HVNs, D-Levels) to forecast price action. The day starts with bullish momentum but shifts to a sharp sell-off after Trump’s tariff news.
Critical Levels: 5950, 5940, 5902, 5880, and 5848 emerge as pivotal for @ES; 20395 for @NQ. The 5940–5950 “Line in the Sand” zone is a recurring focus.
External Influence: Trump’s tariff announcements at 3:00 PM trigger a significant market reaction, erasing gains and driving liquidation.
Trading Style: PTGDavid blends technical analysis (MATD, profile imbalances) with real-time updates, offering actionable targets and scenarios (e.g., bear case to 5925–5920).
Volatility: The day exceeds the average CD2 range (88 points), reflecting heightened activity post-news.
