Summary is for @ES or otherwise noted…
1. Opening Market Sentiment & Bias (9:33 AM – 9:45 AM)
- Market Bias: PTGDavid started the trading day by noting that the market sentiment leans towards sellers, which means there’s a bearish bias in the market at the beginning of the trading day.
- Potential Snaps and Traps: He mentions “snaps n traps,” indicating a setup where price movements could trap traders, especially those who are not quick to react to short-term market movements.
- A10 Long Target (9:45 AM): He reports that the A10 Long target was filled, suggesting that his target for a long position was met.
2. Market Observations & Levels (9:46 AM – 10:00 AM)
- Open Range and Price Levels: PTGDavid discussed the importance of levels such as the PL (Previous Low) and Open Range. The market is considered bearish unless these levels are reclaimed by the bulls, implying that a reversal or change in direction would require these specific levels to be breached.
- Oil (CL) Short Target (9:58 AM): He also mentioned a short target in crude oil (CL), which was filled at $67.12, showing he’s tracking multiple markets.
3. CD3 Violation & Statistical Analysis (10:00 AM – 10:22 AM)
- CD3 Violation: This likely refers to a trading strategy or system where a violation of a specific price level (perhaps the third cycle day or a specific chart pattern) signals a trade or shift in market sentiment.
- Money Box Levels & Cycles: PTGDavid shared images showing his analysis of potential levels, which seem to be based on statistical cycles, possibly indicating extremes in market behavior where reversals or bounces may occur. He mentions these levels as potential turning points, like a bounce or reversal from the IB (Initial Balance) low.
4. Price Action & Bounce Setup (10:30 AM – 11:00 AM)
- Bounce & Buy Response: PTGDavid identified the 5750-5755 zone as critical for bulls. This price range is where buyers have shown interest, suggesting that any back test to this level would likely be met with buying pressure.
- Increasing Two-Way Traffic: The market has become more dynamic, with price moving in both directions, signaling a potential for volatility and indecision.
- Sustained Buy Response: He expected that the bulls must continue their buying momentum in the 5780-85 zone, which aligns with his earlier observations of price action.
5. Market Movement Observations (11:00 AM – 1:42 PM)
- Sustaining Gains & Importance of Key Levels: PTGDavid emphasized that the bulls need to hold their ground in the 5780-85 zone to avoid losing their gains. He highlights the significance of the 5750 level, suggesting that it must hold to maintain bullish momentum.
- EuroPEEAN Closing Dump: There’s a sudden market reaction tied to European market closes, but PTGDavid mentioned this as a “bargain-basement” buying opportunity, implying that the price drop presents a favorable buying opportunity for those who can identify market extremes.
6. Power Hour & Volatility (1:42 PM – 3:00 PM)
- Squeeze Underway: PTGDavid noted that a squeeze is happening, likely referring to a short squeeze, where traders who are betting against the market (short sellers) are forced to cover their positions as prices rise.
- Trump & Ukraine Deal: At 2:04 PM, PTGDavid shared breaking news related to Trump’s speech on a Ukraine minerals deal, showing that he’s staying informed about macroeconomic events, which can affect market sentiment.
7. End of Day Observations (3:00 PM – 3:59 PM)
- Rug Pull & Shorts Squeezed (3:33 PM): PTGDavid observed that the shorts have been squeezed out of their positions, a common event at the end of the trading day, as prices reverse sharply. The mention of “Rug Pull” indicates a rapid reversal of market conditions, often trapping traders.
- MOC Sell Imbalance: He noted a significant sell imbalance of $4.4 billion, hinting at a large market shift or potential market manipulation that traders with better information may have capitalized on.
- End of Day Volatility: PTGDavid ended the day by noting that volatility is here to stay, signaling that future trading sessions could continue to present both risks and opportunities.
Educational Takeaways
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Market Sentiment and Bias:
PTGDavid’s approach is based on recognizing initial market sentiment, such as a bearish lean early in the day. A key educational takeaway is the importance of identifying the prevailing market bias and being ready to shift bias if price action breaches critical levels, such as the Open Range or Previous Low. -
Cycle and Statistical Analysis:
His use of cycle analysis and statistical extremes suggests that historical data and price behavior patterns can be powerful tools for anticipating market reversals. The key here is understanding when price is at an extreme or near a statistical level where reversals or bounces are more likely to occur. -
Key Levels & Price Zones:
PTGDavid frequently referenced important price levels, such as the 5750-5755 buy zone, and emphasizes the need to monitor price action at these levels. This highlights the importance of identifying and trading around key technical levels for confirmation of market sentiment or potential reversals. -
Market Traps:
He refers to “snaps n traps,” which are short-term traps where quick market moves can catch traders off guard. This serves as a reminder to avoid overreacting to fast price movements and instead wait for confirmation of sustained price action. -
Managing Risk During Volatility:
PTGDavid’s comments about “volatility being here to stay” indicate the need to adapt strategies to high-volatility environments. In volatile markets, understanding how to trade breakouts, squeezes, and reversals is crucial for risk management. -
The Importance of Staying Informed:
PTGDavid also integrated macroeconomic news, such as the Trump speech, into his analysis. This shows that successful traders pay attention to external factors—such as political developments—that could affect market behavior. -
End-of-Day Analysis:
The “Rug Pull” and the sell imbalance point to the importance of market manipulation and final hour volatility. These moments are often where experienced traders can capitalize on price swings, but they also present significant risk. Understanding end-of-day behavior is key for managing positions effectively.
In conclusion, PTGDavid’s posts reflect a detailed and strategic approach to trading, emphasizing the importance of technical levels, cycle analysis, market sentiment, and staying informed about broader economic news. For traders, the key takeaway is to focus on critical price levels, manage risk in volatile conditions, and avoid overreacting to quick market moves.