PTGDavid’s OPEX Odyssey – May 16, 2025 Recap
“Capital Preservation in the Land of Wonky Rhythms”
7:30 AM – Welcome to the Fryday Circus 🎪
PTGDavid opened the day with his usual charm:
“Good FRYday Morning” – a nod to both the market heat and traders about to get cooked if they didn’t play it safe.
Minutes later, the Daily Trading Strategy briefing was served hot and fresh, with the roadmap clearly outlined:
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If price holds above 5940, expect a push to 5955–5960.
Status: Target Fulfilled by 8:04 AM.
Efficiency in execution. 🧼
8:30 AM – Record-Breaking OPEX Stats 🧠💰
David highlighted the gravity of the day:
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$2.8 Trillion in options set to expire—largest on record.
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SPX alone accounts for $1.2T, single stock options for $580B.
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Retail and a hot SPX drive the surge.
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4.6% of Russell 3000’s market cap at stake.
OPEX wasn’t just “big”—it was macro-magnetic.
9:00–10:30 AM – Chop City, Population: Everyone 🔪
Despite the early level tags, things quickly turned into a “no-fly zone.”
“Capital Preservation Day” was declared.
Between the chop and multiple price rejections at VWAP, David remained cautious:
“I am largely on the sidelines this morning.”
“Flush out the weak longs and rip it back.”
Visual aids like:
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“The Chop is Real”
“Soap bar Bull”
…added comic relief to an otherwise frustrating tape. The images did what the chart couldn’t: explained the market in meme-grade clarity.
10:45–1:30 PM – Patience Rewarded, the Grind Begins 📈
The day morphed into a textbook OPEX rhythm:
“Looking for a grind up afternoon rhythm”
“Persistent CALL buying”
5955 ✅
5960 ✅
5974 Money Box ✅ at 3:16 PM
Like a Netflix finale, the action didn’t really hit until after lunch.
Closing Bell – Jak the Ripper Arrives 🧨
Right before the bell:
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MOC imbalance came in at +$1.4B BUY
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David quipped: “MOC is Mice Nutz”
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Then corrected with: “Jak the Ripper for the closing bell”
The day ended with price pinned near highs—a full rhythm cycle from chop to melt-up.
🎓 Educational Takeaway:
1. Know the Environment:
OPEX days bring distorted flows, unexpected reversals, and macro-driven noise. Recognize it and shift to “Capital Preservation Mode” until clarity emerges.
2. Price Levels + Patience = Edge:
PTGDavid’s pre-market levels were surgically accurate. But he didn’t overtrade them. He waited for confirmation, avoided the early chop, and only leaned in once price behavior aligned with the thesis.
3. Emotional Discipline is a Strategy:
Throughout the day, David reinforced process over profits:
“Don’t think about P/L. Build habits.”
“No reason to push on the string.”
Staying unshaken during indecision is the trait that separates skilled traders from the reactive herd.
🧠 Final Word:
“You don’t survive OPEX by being clever. You survive by being calm, clear, and committed to your plan.”