📉 FRYday Fallout: “Data Dumps & Dud Payrolls”

Date: August 1st, 2025
Type: Cycle Day 2 – Balancing, Back-Fill & Stabilization

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🔍 Morning Setup:
As anticipated, overnight momentum spilled further south — slicing beneath PTG’s lower target to tag 6295.
Key inflection for bulls was 6330… never reclaimed. Bias held short.

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🚨 Macro Shock & Awe:

• Nonfarm Payrolls:

  • Actual: +73K (vs. +104K forecast)

  • May revised to +19K (from +144K)

  • June revised to +14K (from +147K)

  • 🎯 “Jobs Mirage or Data Massacre?”

• ISM Manufacturing PMI: 48.0 vs 49.5 est.

• UMich Sentiment: 61.7 vs 62.0 est.

• ➡️ Market now pricing 75% odds of Sept rate cut (up from 45%).

JPOW better bring scissors in September or he might just be the next one cut.

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🔁 Trade Execution Notes:

• 📉 Initial short thesis played out early – textbook alignment.

• 🎯 Measured Move+ Achieved:

  • Prior Range: 111

  • Today’s Range: 130

• 🔄 Fib retraces and 89EMA logic in motion (as discussed live).

• MOC Buy Imbalance: $2.6 Billion 🔁

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💬 Chatroom Gold:

• “Don’t hesitate on entries.”

• “Follow the bouncing rate-cut ball…”

• “MAKE VOLATILITY GREAT AGAIN!”

• Trump: “Jobs numbers were rigged to make me look bad.”

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📉 Closing Tone:
Normal CD2 behavior: consolidation, profit protection, and range fulfillment.
Even as the macro backdrop crumbled, PTG precision stayed intact.

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🧢 Wrap It Up:

Capital Preservation Mode: ENGAGED.
One & Done? Better than a backyard BBQ on FRYday.
Have a great weekend!