Trading Room RECAP 8.14.25

Posted on by August 14, 2025

🔍 Key Links

📈 Morning Macro Shock – PPI Surprise

The morning’s calm was shattered when Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM came in at +0.9% vs. the expected +0.2% — the hottest reading since March 2022.

  • PPI YoY: 3.3% vs. 2.5% expected (Prev. 2.3%)

  • Core PPI YoY: 3.7% vs. 3.0% expected
    Over half the surge came from final demand trade services margins, up 2.0%.

Result?
📉 Fed rate cut bets for September were quickly dialed back as traders braced for the “inflation pendulum” swinging the other way.

⚔️ Market Battle Lines

  • Early Action: ES tagged the D-level and bounced, but sellers remained ready above 6470–6475.

  • Big Gamma Strike: Detected at the morning lows, with bulls needing to reclaim the Prior Low (6461) to stabilize.

  • Bears’ Goal: Push through for deeper downside; renewed selling expected at 6470–6475.

  • Cycle Day 2 Rhythm: Favored selling bounces, but bulls kept swiping the soap bar away from the bears.

💬 Trader Chatter Highlights

  • Gamma & 0DTE – Multiple traders discussed the increased influence of options flows on intraday futures price action compared to just 4–5 years ago.

  • Comparative Data Points – CPI overshoot earlier in the week (+70 pts after initial move) noted as a possible analog.

  • CL (Crude Oil) Side Quest – Same setups as ES work on CL using 250-tick charts, but execution still trips up some traders.

📊 Key Technical Levels

  • Prior Low: 6461 – First reclaim target for bulls.

  • Resistance: 6475/77 – Initial sell zone.

  • Support: Open Range midpoint 6466.

  • Upside Trigger: Clearing 6482 opens door to 6489.

🏁 Afternoon Tape

  • Midday: “No good reason to be trading… total crap rhythms.”

  • Late Session: Bulls took control, closing near highs of the day ahead of OPEX Friday.

  • MOC: Small $300m sell imbalance (“Mice Nutz”).

🎯 PTG Takeaway

A hotter-than-expected PPI lit the morning fuse, shaking rate-cut optimism and prompting a tug-of-war between gamma-propped lows and inflation-fueled sellers. By the close, bulls had their way, but with OPEX tomorrow, the real fireworks could come in the morning session.
Stay flexible — pendulums swing both ways.

Comments are closed.