Morning Observations:
- $ES and $NQ were both noted at statistical extreme zones early in the session.
- Initial discussions included technical levels and settings, such as AR4 Stop values and a focus on key targets (5, 8, and 13 points).
Trading Insights and Adjustments:
- 9:32 AM: The current trading sandbox was identified between 5920 and 5940.
- 10:46 AM: Shifted to a long bias, probing the long side on dips. Subsequent movements validated this approach.
- 11:13 AM: Price reached VWAP and OPR mid, where resistance was anticipated. However, buyers continued pressing, and resistance did not materialize.
Sector and Market Developments:
- The Sector AD Line turned positive later in the session, signaling a strong recovery.
- The gap was filled, with price tagging the prior low, marking a significant technical achievement.
Closing Session Highlights:
- MOC (Market-on-Close) Imbalance: A significant $1 billion sell imbalance was reported.
- 3-Day Cycle Analysis: The price failed to recover Cycle Day 1 Low, an event historically rare (occurs only 7% of the time).
- Historical parallels were drawn, noting that a previous failed cycle led to a “224% SUPER CYCLE.”
- Tomorrow, being the final trading day of 2024, was flagged as a potentially volatile session due to “Window Dressing” activity.
Schedule Notes:
- PTG operations for the week:
- Monday: Full Day
- Tuesday: Half Day
- Wednesday – Friday: Closed
- Returning on Monday, January 6, 2025.
This recap encapsulates PTGDavid’s key insights and trading strategies for the session, emphasizing market behavior and potential opportunities for future sessions.