All focus today will be on FOMC Policy Decision and Janet Yellen’s press conference beginning at 2:30 pm ET. Also, with the high potential of interest rates rising in the near future, the US Dollar has risen sharply against major currencies. Since Crude Oil is priced in dollars, this has the net effect of weakening crude oil…add-on continued increasing supplies of the “black gold” has pushed oil to six-year lows.
S&P is lower in overnight trade holding just above prior lows…Yesterday’s bullish action has all but been reversed as nervousness ahead of FED Decision has tempered buyers. HIGH SURF WARNING is in effect today.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2084.75; Possible Low = 2043.00
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
Scenario 1: IF Price holds above 2056.50, THEN there is an 83% chance of rallying greater than 10 handles targeting 2066.50. Above this level targets PDH (2070.50). There is a 65% chance of making expansion high to 2077 IF this level is converted.
Scenario 2: Violation and Conversion of PDL (2056.25) initially targets 2054.00, then 2052- 2050 zone. TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level measures 2048.00.
****FED DAY volatility may create very wide gyrations in price today as traders react to announcement and press conference responses. STAY ALERT! ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.” -Bruce Lee