Trade Strategy 5.12.21

Markets

Volatility is still reigning high in the markets, with Wall Street’s best fear gauge, known as the VIX, hitting levels yesterday that haven’t been seen in two months. The index traded as high as 23.73 intraday, as concerns about inflation spread to other areas of the market, with the Dow losing 473 points, to end the day down 1.4%. The Nasdaq meanwhile rebounded from earlier losses of 2%, but the buy-on-dip crowd couldn’t push the index into the green before the close.

Things aren’t looking better this morning. Stock index futures are all off by about 0.4% ahead of an inflation report that could shake markets once again. 

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

8:30 Consumer Price Index
1:00 PM Results of $41B, 10-Year Note Auction

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link


10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories

S&P 500

***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.

Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2):  Selling continued into this session, driving price down to mid-April Lows. Typical of CD2, price did find balance between 4152 – 4129 Value Area. Range was 82 handles on 2.848M contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is still below CD1 Low (4172), with historical odds favoring recovery. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

1.) Price sustains a bid above 4152, initially targets 4165 – 4172 zone.

2.) Price sustains an offer below 4129, initially targets 4115 – 4110 zone.

*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:

Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet >>Cycle Day 3 (CD3)

PVA High Edge = 4152       PVA Low Edge = 4129         Prior POC = 4145

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2021 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4154; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4106; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4185; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4240; 10 Day Average True Range  44; VIX: 22

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price continued its selling spree down to weekly suppot near 13100 5 day value low. CD1 Low ( 1305.50) is required to be above during CD3 to avoid a failed cycle statistic.Prior range was 310 handles on 782k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

PVA High Edge = 13360       PVA Low Edge = 131292      Prior POC = 13316

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13316, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13360 – 13400 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13316, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13260 – 13200 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2021 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 13419; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13118; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13468; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13648; 10 Day Average True Range: 234; VIX: 22

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


Leave a Reply