The latest stock market rally is losing momentum as the correlation between crude and equity benchmarks grows stronger than ever. Oil prices jumped over 6% on Monday as the IEA reported that U.S. shale production was expected to decline, but retreated overnight on concerns that any cuts would be countered by rising output from Iran. Adding to the worries, OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri stated that oil producers have adopted a “wait and see” attitude and are still “feeling the water” regarding a production freeze deal. West Texas Intermediate, which just saw its March contract expire, is off 2.3% at $32.62/bbl.
In Asia, Japan -0.4% to 16052. Hong Kong -0.3% to 19415. China -0.8% to 2903. India -1.6% to 23410.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.4%. Frankfurt -0.7%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.4%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -0.5%. Crude -2.3% to $32.62. Gold +0.7% to $1219.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.76%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
10:00 Existing Home Sales
1:00 PM Results of $26B, 2-Year Note Auction
8:30 PM Stanley Fischer
S&P e-mini (ES) continued its rally straight to projected HOD (1940.00) laid out in prior DTS Report 2.22.16. Price has now tested key 1940.00 on significantly reduced volume and volatility. Buyers appear disinterested in auctioning price higher, allowing a build up of short-sided positions, which could potentially be fuel for explosive move higher. But first price is positioned to consolidate recent gains as larger trend condition remains bullish.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Failure to expand beyond prior high (1943.75) sets up a normal pullback session in search of a new “secure low”. Of key importance will be 1926.00 – 1928.00 Central Pivot Zone, as well as 1919.75 – 1921.25 Three Day Central Pivot Zone, both in bullish configurations.
Range Projections and Key Levels:
HOD Range Projection = 1954.13; LOD Range Projection = 1906.33; CD1 Maximum Penetration Level = 1962.00; CD1 Maximum Violation Level = 1879.22; Cycle Day 1 Low = 1911.25; 3 Day Central Pivot = 1920.50; 3 Day Cycle Target = 1949.00; 10 Day Average True Range = 29.67.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: March 2016 (H) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price holds at or above 1926.00 THEN clears and converts PH (1943.75), upside range expansion targets 1946.25 – 1950.50 STATX Zone, followed by 1954.17 and 1962.00 CD1 Max Penetration Level.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (1943.75) with violation and conversion of 1926.00 opens door for deeper decline in search for new secure cycle low. Levels to be mindful of should this level be broken are 1921.25 – 1919.75 then 1916.00 SPOT.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS