Friday’s quick sell-down was related to a geo-political news driven event giving the bulls an opportunity to “buy the dip”. Scenario 2 upper and lower target zones hit perfectly…here’s an excerpt: “Price is very near to expansion targets between 1959 – 1962 expected high…Cycle Day 1 has a high probability of getting a decline of greater than 10 handles…As such, caution is warranted for any new longs…Failure to hold PDH on any pullback targets 1946 – 48 initially, THEN 1938 – 41 zone.”
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Having found what appears to be a secure low 1937.25 on Friday, and having initially rallied from that low to close strong, expectation is for continued upside to reach upper cycle expansion targets.
Average Range on CD2 = 14.50; Max Range on CD2 = 22.50; Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Projected High Zone on CD2 = 1964.50 – 1969.25 based upon penetration of CD1 high.
Scenario 1: Penetration and Conversion of CD1 High (1961.00) there is a 56% chance of price hitting initial target zone of 1962.50 – 1965.50 STATX Zone, with a projected Cycle High Target of 1969.25. Price will need to remain above PDH (1961.00) during Pit Session for bullish scenario to continue to play out.
Scenario 2: Failure to hold overnight gains and remain above PDH (1961.00) suggests a pullback is necessary to find renewed buy response for this cycle. Initial pullback levels to be mindful of are VTMP 1960 handle, ONL 1956, THEN 1953. The 3D CPZ is between 1945.00 – 1949.50 and should offer strong buy response support if price trades down.
Trade Strategy: There is significant supply/resistance above 1963 handle…As such caution is warranted for new swing longs. Daytraders can continue to play current upside momentum swing until there is a definitive shift violating key support levels. We will continue to follow our game plan, which is to buy pullbacks with bullish momentum intact. Evidence of auction failure highs at key Decision Points (DP), then short-side trade can be considered.
Focus on the Trading Process…Not the Outcome ALWAYS USE STOPS!
I know anything can happen, and I can handle anything that does happen. I am open minded. My thoughts and perceptions are clear. I know what to look for. I have rehearsed everything. I adapt to change. I will listen to my indicators and the patterns that emerge. I will adjust and not demand that things continue as they first started.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS