Friday was Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Odds (71%) favored a decline greater than 10 handles; and (41%) decline greater than 20 handles. Average Range on CD1 = 22.00…Actual Range was 23.50 handles…So a perfect Cycle Day 1…
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)..Having closed with weakness yesterday, price action may continue a bit lower before renewed responsive buyers step-in…Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range on CD2 = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50. Possible High = 2076.50 based upon penetration of CD1 high; Possible Low = 2033.50 based upon average violation of CD1 low.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Scenario 1: Price has extended below Friday’s low in overnight trade…Price will need to hold above 2038 handle and convert 2044.50 (PDL) to place odds (55%) for retracement rally targeting 2050…Any price strength above this level targets 2056 Central Pivot Zone.
Scenario 2: Failure to converted back above PDL (2044.50) places odds (50%) of continuation lower…Key Support is the 3D CPZ (2038.50 – 2033.00). Violation below 2033.00 increases odds of giving back past 2-days gains, which targets 2026.50 – 2024.50 TargetMaster STATX Zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
I am courageous and I always act, even in the face of uncertainty and possible loss. Do not say, no fear. Feel the fear and act anyway. I may be frightened, but I still saddle up. I am not reckless. I act promptly in accordance with my methodology. I respect my calculations. I have a healthy respect and I balance that respect with my courage. I am an explorer. I am on a hero’s journey.