March begins where February ended…S&P still stuck within multi-day range between 2100 and 2115. There was some month-end price weakness on Friday that will need to be addressed early this week. If price can hold above 2100 and recover above 2108, then there a decent shot to notch yet new highs. Violation and conversion of 2100 calls into question the resolve of the bulls…
Today is Cycle day 2 (CD2)…Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range on CD2 = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2120 based upon penetration of CD1 high; Possible Low = 2095.75 based upon average range.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Scenario 1: IF price can hold above 2100.00 and THEN clear and convert 2106, THEN there is a 60% chance of testing PDH (2111.00). Conversion of this level target 2115 handle, followed by 2119 – 2122.00. Extreme Range Expansion levels measure 2126.
Scenario 2: Failure to clear and convert 2106 keeps selling pressure from Friday intact…Violation and conversion 2100 increase odds of deeper downside push. Levels to be mindful of are 2098.50 – 2099.50, followed by 2095.75 TargetMaster Range Breakout Level. Below this level increases odds of some long liquidation targeting 2089 handle.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
I am detached from the results. I think in terms of the process and the validity of the process. I understand that I am more than the trading. I do not tie a fragile ego to any day’s trading results. I have faith that over time I will make money. The results of any one trade are statistically unimportant. I think in term of probability. A single trade says nothing about me as a person.