S&P 500 e-mini continues to be locked within multi-day trading range between 2100 – 2115 as we have been discussing in recent briefings. We continue to classify this action as bullish as long as 2100 continues to hold on light volume pullbacks. Supply and demand volume metrics continues to paint a balanced equilibrium of opinions between bulls and bears. An upside penetration and conversion projects a rise to 2134. Violation and conversion of 2100 might create a stop-run, but a move below 2079 will reverse the immediate uptrend.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Bullish momentum is intact as buyers dominated prior day’s action and closing on the highs of day. A definitive penetration above 2115 would infer further upside potential. Failure to exceed 2115 would keep price within current range.
Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range on CD3 = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible High = 2123.50; Possible Low = 2100.50.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Scenario 1: IF price can Clear and Convert PDH (2115.50), THEN there is a 82% chance of reaching 2117.50 – 2119.25 STATX Zone, followed by 2123.50 Range Target. Above this level and extreme range expansion measures 2126.50 through 2134 handle.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PDH (2115.50) keeps price within current range with a possible test of lower range parameters. The midpoint of range is 2108 3DCPZ which is key decision point to hold on pullback. Violation of this level increases odds 65% of 2100 level.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
I am willing to accept loss. Losing is an integral part of the process. I know and accept that individual losses and losing periods will happen. They are endemic to trading. I do not like loss. I do not expect loss. I simply accept loss as a cost of doing business.