As outlined in Scenario 2 of yesterday’s Daily Trade Strategy 03.19.15 S&P e-mini found support at projected low-of-day (2078.00) and consolidated the Fed Day sharp run-up.
In overnight trade, prior day’s low has held firm and is currently up by 10 handles near 2090. Expectation for today will be for continued buying interest on any dip in price as confidence continues to build for ultimate retest of all-time highs and possibly new highs in the coming days.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normally we would be looking for a decline…We believe that decline occurred on CD3 following the run-up in price. With no further weakness overnight in price, the new cycle rally appears to have begun, with initial upside Cycle Target 2095 handle, followed by 2098.00.
Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Avergae Range on CD1 = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible High = 2109.75 based upon average penetration of CD3 high; Possible Low = 2066 based upon average violation of CD3 low.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
Scenario 1: Having held above PDL (2076.50), expectation is for Cycle Rally to begin which initially targets 2095 handle. Any pullback is expected for illicit a buy response above the Daily Central Pivot 2085.00. IF price can penetrate and convert PDH (2099), THEN range expansion targets 2102.00 TargetMaster Breakout Level, followed by 2107.50 – 2109.75.
Scenario 2: Violation of 2085 on pullback increases odds of retest of PDL (2076.50). Should this low fail to hold, then downside targets 2074 – 2072.00 STAT-X Zone. Below this zone measures 2066.00 – 2064.50.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee