Trade Strategy 03.31.15

Yesterday finished the session with a strong auction closing just off highs and surpassed Cycle Targets. Keep in mind that the 10-day Average Daily Range now stands at 22.90 handles, so it should come as no surprise that current cycle targets are being achieved more quickly. We will continue to anticipate wider intra-day ranges and adjust our tactical trade management accordingly to capture greater Alpha.

Today is Cycle day 2 (CD2)…Cycle Targets have been achieved and surpassed…As such we are anticipating pullback from highs to consolidate recent gains.

Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2090.75 based upon average penetration of CD1 high; Possible Low = 2055.00

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.



Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF price can hold above 2061 handles on pullback with renewed buy response, THEN there is 70% chance of reaching 2074 handle. Continued strength above this level targets retest of PH (2081.75) Clear and Convert this level targets expansion measuring 2090 handle.

Scenario 2: Failure to hold 2061 handles on pullback, suggests deeper decline to attract buy response. Levels to be mindful of are 3D CPZ 2056.75 – 2053.25…Below this zone targets PL (2047.25)…Violation of this level opens door to 2035 deep Range Xtreme.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee

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