Despite early strength yesterday, price failed to convert CD3 High, setting up a late day sell down. We knew odds were favorable (71%) of decline greater than 10 handles and (41%) greater than 20 handles on Cycle Day 1 (CD1). Prior High (2082.75) to Overnight Low (2064.50) is currently 18.25, so very near projected range.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Having price close at the lows, some continued weakness may ensue to find that secure low, before a rally can begin. Key Zone today on pullback will be the Three-Day Central Pivot Zone between (2061.50 – 2060.00). Price will need to clear and convert 2072.25 – 2074.00 to build upside directional momentum.
Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2091.50 based upon range expansion above CD1 high; Possible Low = 2060 based upon max average range retracement from CD1 high.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
Scenario 1: IF price can hold above PL (2067.25), THEN there is an 83% chance of rally targeting 2073…Above this level is 2075, then PH (2082.75).
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee