Trade Strategy 05.01.15

Having hit the 3-Day Cycle Target on CD1 (2112.50) with a failed retest on CD2 with subsequent violation of CD2 Low, set in motion yesterday’s sharp decline, which pushed price well beyond max range targets and down to next key zone between 2073 – 2075. Most of the decline for this cycle is in place, so retest of PL (2070.25) may need to be probed before this new cycle rally can begin.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Most of the decline from CD3 high is in place, and as such, the new cycle rally could begin at any time. Expectation for today is some back n fill and perhaps a retest of PL (2070.25) to make sure the low is “secure”.

Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible High = 2092.25 based upon max average range; Possible Low = 2059.25 based upon average violation of CD3 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF price can stabilize above PL (2070.25), THEN there is a 60% chance of retracing prior decline back to 2085 Central Pivot. Clear and convert this level targets 2092.25 HOD Target based upon max average range rally. Above this level measure 2099.00 TargetMaster Range Breakout Target.

Scenario 2: As stated, most of this cycle’s decline is in place, which may make for a confusing end/start of new cycle. Retest of PL (2070.25) may be necessary to validate “secure low”. Violation of this low suggests traders are not satisfied with low and further lower probe targeting 2066.00 TargetMaster Range Breakout Level, followed by deep extreme (2059.25), which represents the average violation of CD3 low measurement.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

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