Trade Strategy 05.14.15

Scenario 2 played out as outlined in DTS 05.13.15 as price failed at 2105.75 and reversed pushing down to support objective within 2092 – 2090 zone. Large market on close sell imbalance ($900M) was easily absorbed as price has held above prior low (2091.50) in overnight trade…Not only held, but has rallied higher testing prior high (2106.50). This is indeed bullish price action and barring any external event, expectation is now to push aggressively higher to challenge contract highs.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normally we would be anticipating some weakness today, but price has already probed for low and has held firmly above PL (2091.50). This has setup a “springboard” type rally that has ample energy to propel price much higher.

Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Average Decline = 21.50; Possible HOD = 2115.50 based upon average penetration of CD3 high; Possible LOD = 2085.75 based upon average decline on CD1

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF Price can clear and convert PH (2106.50), THEN odds (73%) favor vaulting to 2110.50, followed by 2112.50 – 2113.25 zone. Upside penetration target measures 2115.50.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2106.50) increases odds (55%) of decline with initial support marked at 2096.50 – 2098.00 3D CPZ. Below this zone is 2091.50, then 2085.75.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

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