Trade Strategy 05.18.15

S&P e-mini (ES) continues to quietly consolidate last weeks gains and new contract high within a 10 handle range between 2112 – 2122. We will label these levels as “key markers” for either bullish upside continuation or bearish downside reversal. Current trend is up so benefit the bulls. Average 3-Day Cycle Rally target 2115.50 has been achieved, so bulls definitely need follow through and bears need an auction failure.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…As stated, cycle target (2115.50) has been achieved, so decline could begin at any time to probe for new secure low. If the cycle remains strong, then any decline would be anticipated to be shallow…Deeper decline would shift near-term control to bear camp.

Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible HOD = 2122.25 based upon failure to convert CD2 high; Possible LOD = 2105.00 based upon average range on CD3.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2122.75), THEN upside expansion targets 2124.50, 2128.25, followed by 2130.75 – 2134.00 STATX Zone.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2122.75) and subsequent violation of 2112.25 “key marker” opens door to deeper pullback targeting 2110.00 — 2107.50 3D CPZ. Below this zone 2105.75 – 2103.50 TargetMaster/STATX Zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

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