Trade Strategy 05.22.15

Price found this cycle’s “secure low” within the expected zone outlined in previous two Daily Trade Strategy Reports. Here is excerpt: “Violation of PL (2121.25) opens door for deeper downside probe for new secure cycle low. Levels to be mindful of are: 2118.50…2116.25″.

Subsequent rally of the low vaulted price higher during cash session to tic high of day at 2132.00…just 2-tics below our projected high: “Conversion above this zone (2124.50 – 2126.50) increase odds (76%) of pushing higher to 2128.50, then 2132.50…Possible HOD = 2132.50”

Today begins a new cycle but also is pre-holiday Friday, which tends to be very quiet, both in terms of volume and price range, so we are not expecting too much today…That said, bulls remain in control and price is not far from making yet new contract highs, which is the more likely outcome given recent price auction.

Cycle Day 1 (CD1) Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible HOD = 2139.50; Possible LOD = 2114.75.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2132.00), THEN there is a 55% chance of extending to 2133.75 – 2136.25 STATX Zone. Above this zone expands to 2139.50 HOD Target.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2132.00) suggests buyers are satisfied, which could open door to decline…Odds (71%) usually favored on CD1 may be muted ahead of long holiday weekend, but remains a possibility. Downside levels to be mindful of are: 2126.75 – 2125.75 3D CPZ…2123.50 – 2122.50…2119.50 TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

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