Trade Strategy 06.17.15

Although the Federal Reserve appears to be getting closer to raising interest rates, it isn’t likely to get there today when officials conclude a two-day policy meeting. Investors will still have plenty to watch, including a policy statement and updated economic projections at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s quarterly press conference. “It might end up being a neutral statement, but because people are expecting a dovish Fed, it might come off as hawkish,” said George Goncalves, Nomura rates strategist.

We knew from yesterday’s DTS Report 06.16.15 that odds (82%) were favorable for 3-Day Cycle Rally to 2082 handle with additional upper targets layered between 2084 – 2088, which all were achieved. In overnight trade price has pushed a bit higher to 2095 with residual momentum…Fedspeak today so price action may be a bit muted until the announcement and press conference.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Average Decline = 20.75; Possible HOD = 2098 based upon penetration of CD3 high; Possible LOD = 2068.50 based upon average decline on CD1.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: July (U) Contract

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2089.25), THEN there is a 45% chance of extending to 2095 – 2097.75 STATX Zone. Above this zone measures 2100.75, 2106.00 TargetMaster Range Breakout Level.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2089.25) increase odds (65%) of decline initially targeting 2085.00 – 2084.25, followed by 2082.00 – 2080 3 Day Central Pivot Zone. Violation of this zone measures 2073.50 TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level. The Average Cycle Decline Target is 2068.50.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee


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