S&P e-mini rallied in Monday’s session reaching measured target of 2121.00 before stalling and consolidating the day’s gains. Market on Close sell imbalance was easily absorbed as shorts were pressed to cover lower sales.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Two-thirds of this cycle rally is in place…Average Cycle Target is 2125.75. IF price clears prior high (2122.00), THEN cycle target should be achievable barring any negative news on the Greek situation.
Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible LOD = 2132.50 based upon penetration of CD1 high; Possible LOD = 2107.50 based upin average decline of 14.50 handles.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: July (U) Contract
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2122.00), THEN there is a 35% chance of reaching 2125.75 (Average Cycle Target)…Above this level measures 2128.00 – 2130.25 zone…TargetMaster Range Breakout Level 2134.50.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2122.00) keeps price within prior day’s range within initial support 2114.25 – 2112.75 Central Pivot Zone. Violation of this zone opens door for deeper downside targeting 2108.00 – 2106.00 zone. Failure to find responsive buyers deepens the decline to statistical extremes between 2102 – 2100.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee